{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d7bb4f1-9166-401d-be72-49bf182a50e4", "symbol": "PFIG", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II FUNDAMENTAL INVT GRADE CORP ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.557, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.366, "architecture_energy": 25.347, "architecture_maturity": 24.372, "architecture_confidence": 89.181, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.79, "rotation_up": 16.77, "upward_expansion": 2.12, "deceleration": 48.16, "rotation_down": 49.31, "downward_expansion": 75.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.703058, 23.738385, 23.776543, 23.806643 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.74, "trend_reference": 23.850806, "distance_from_trend": -0.004646, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.452724, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.057333, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.096662, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010086, "excess_performance": -0.135711, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004646, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -8.3e-05, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.057333, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019926, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110967, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010912, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010086, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.653975, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 127953, "relative_activity": 1.226227, "balance": 1.653975, "dry_up": 1.321639, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015109, "annualized_volatility": 0.034007, "from_high_reference": -0.081092, "from_low_reference": 0.02192 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.850806, "fair_value_reference": 22.452724, "structural_low": 23.576801, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.002084, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.000162, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.015127, "worst_return": -0.031713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018925, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.016111, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.043135, "worst_return": -0.040177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.040391, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.025918, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.06154, "worst_return": -0.019133, 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23.820186, 23.847611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.779819, "volume": 41667, "typical_volume": 107227.2, "trend": 23.86945, "fair_value": 22.391625, "relative_strength": -8.229405, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.04818, "energy": 21.140924, "activity_lines": [ 23.784617, 23.794571, 23.814241, 23.841883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.64, "volume": 127021, "typical_volume": 109183.6, "trend": 23.861818, "fair_value": 22.411487, "relative_strength": -7.991069, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.103058, "energy": 42.683206, "activity_lines": [ 23.734541, 23.767045, 23.796556, 23.82708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.6603, "volume": 254995, "typical_volume": 101984.75, "trend": 23.855262, "fair_value": 22.43148, "relative_strength": -8.599512, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.464446, "energy": 31.394504, "activity_lines": [ 23.698709, 23.74454, 23.782553, 23.814079 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.74, "volume": 127953, "typical_volume": 104346.95, "trend": 23.850806, "fair_value": 22.452724, "relative_strength": -11.096662, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.366438, "energy": 25.34669, "activity_lines": [ 23.703058, 23.738385, 23.776543, 23.806643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }