{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d7d6088-1c65-440a-b145-e02c8c512b0d", "symbol": "000338", "name": "Weichai Power Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.259, "architecture_energy": 15.959, "architecture_maturity": 31.299, "architecture_confidence": 95.316, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.8, "rotation_up": 26.53, "upward_expansion": 48.76, "deceleration": 82.04, "rotation_down": 33.36, "downward_expansion": 28.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.145334, 28.027637, 29.230191, 28.718452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.15, "trend_reference": 27.487, "distance_from_trend": 0.096882, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.551851, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.821549, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 32.157321, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.270008, "excess_performance": 0.262609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096882, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155563, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.821549, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.386884, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.321573, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145057, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.270008, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.576648, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 452572514, "relative_activity": 0.998876, "balance": 1.576648, "dry_up": 1.123778, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112693, "annualized_volatility": 0.522586, "from_high_reference": -0.170336, "from_low_reference": 1.264548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.487, "fair_value_reference": 16.551851, "structural_low": 21.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.009069, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.001941, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.224444, "worst_return": -0.12931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019254, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.030407, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.301831, "worst_return": -0.170366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.003844, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006947, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.052054, "worst_return": -0.020438, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.620001, "volume": 526914888, "typical_volume": 474557523.25, "trend": 26.708667, "fair_value": 16.322157, "relative_strength": 28.032329, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.465479, "energy": 17.949732, "activity_lines": [ 26.896, 28.060727, 29.172429, 28.43871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.950001, "volume": 527066571, "typical_volume": 459439389.95, "trend": 27.055334, "fair_value": 16.429754, "relative_strength": 30.318972, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.503469, "energy": 15.20167, "activity_lines": [ 27.154001, 27.789091, 29.103857, 28.518796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.15, "volume": 452572514, "typical_volume": 453081756.75, "trend": 27.487, "fair_value": 16.551851, "relative_strength": 32.157321, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.258706, "energy": 15.959213, "activity_lines": [ 28.145334, 28.027637, 29.230191, 28.718452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }