{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d7eb7b2-4dd9-4d3e-a5a1-0010c62e3ee5", "symbol": "002520", "name": "Zhejiang RIFA Precision Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.508, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.884, "architecture_energy": 43.237, "architecture_maturity": 15.288, "architecture_confidence": 59.199, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.15, "rotation_up": 8.83, "upward_expansion": 12.53, "deceleration": 55.65, "rotation_down": 68.95, "downward_expansion": 69.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.616667, 6.072545, 6.200952, 6.192301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.77, "trend_reference": 6.206667, "distance_from_trend": -0.070354, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.837244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.01152, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.062638, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.022034, "excess_performance": -0.029434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070354, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009816, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.01152, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176807, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110626, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027523, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.022034, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.747951, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 133871962, "relative_activity": 0.75481, "balance": 0.747951, "dry_up": 1.053273, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131582, "annualized_volatility": 0.597512, "from_high_reference": -0.298054, "from_low_reference": 0.202083 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.206667, "fair_value_reference": 5.837244, "structural_low": 4.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.011663, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.045333, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.346021, "worst_return": -0.225207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.061983, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.162688, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.237024, "worst_return": -0.372517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.138365, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.109097, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.256055, "worst_return": -0.206463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.100551, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.256043, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.025952, "worst_return": -0.26087, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.315091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102041, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.157025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061189, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069182, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098336, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053476, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.255435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101072, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08189, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.290155, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101145, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 5.63, "volume": 39355215, "typical_volume": 81995941.95, "trend": 6.463, "fair_value": 7.107105, "relative_strength": -11.069522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"typical_volume": 186127275.25, "trend": 6.272667, "fair_value": 5.842372, "relative_strength": -13.986652, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.154414, "energy": 12.591399, "activity_lines": [ 6.544, 6.582909, 6.399, 6.336409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.24, "volume": 198865273, "typical_volume": 182095506.95, "trend": 6.246667, "fair_value": 5.838013, "relative_strength": -17.385454, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.500532, "energy": 16.377921, "activity_lines": [ 6.039333, 6.338182, 6.30119, 6.269785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.5, "volume": 147988826, "typical_volume": 177455354.6, "trend": 6.224333, "fair_value": 5.835833, "relative_strength": -11.344483, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.129763, "energy": 34.775495, "activity_lines": [ 5.737333, 6.171455, 6.235571, 6.221613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.77, "volume": 133871962, "typical_volume": 177358550.25, "trend": 6.206667, "fair_value": 5.837244, "relative_strength": -11.062638, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.88413, "energy": 43.23721, "activity_lines": [ 5.616667, 6.072545, 6.200952, 6.192301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }