{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d7eb94e-c13a-423d-8a3a-426763bd5272", "symbol": "3444", "name": "Niching Industrial Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.079, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.61, "architecture_energy": 40.681, "architecture_maturity": 4.378, "architecture_confidence": 66.341, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.28, "rotation_up": 15.19, "upward_expansion": 22.45, "deceleration": 52.25, "rotation_down": 58.99, "downward_expansion": 47.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.138915, 76.695042, 82.571894, 80.443882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 76.5, "trend_reference": 76.863198, "distance_from_trend": -0.004725, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 76.66435, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.002144, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.281215, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.227646, "excess_performance": -0.213726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004725, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114118, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.002144, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208246, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182812, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209762, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.227646, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.305855, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1695259, "relative_activity": 0.51059, "balance": 1.305855, "dry_up": 0.329865, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157275, "annualized_volatility": 0.56697, "from_high_reference": -0.368356, "from_low_reference": 0.580703 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.863198, "fair_value_reference": 76.66435, "structural_low": 55.37969, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.101498, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.097867, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.274953, "worst_return": -0.071958, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.005434, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.111471, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.160075, "worst_return": -0.149206, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.394207, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.047593, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.939736, "worst_return": -0.151323, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2026-07-31", "close": 64.400002, "volume": 1157049, "typical_volume": 3248657.55, "trend": 76.631421, "fair_value": 76.589227, "relative_strength": -27.511008, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.430688, "energy": 41.141641, "activity_lines": [ 72.598707, 79.788709, 83.753334, 80.54392 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.300003, "volume": 938551, "typical_volume": 3258000.65, "trend": 76.71917, "fair_value": 76.602114, "relative_strength": -17.001868, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.732793, "energy": 41.47946, "activity_lines": [ 72.274715, 77.885012, 83.13732, 80.458022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 76.5, "volume": 1695259, "typical_volume": 3320193.75, "trend": 76.863198, "fair_value": 76.66435, "relative_strength": -18.281215, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.61024, "energy": 40.681203, "activity_lines": [ 73.138915, 76.695042, 82.571894, 80.443882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }