{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d8ce786-134a-4754-a655-49148376b813", "symbol": "CLCO", "name": "CloudCoCo Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 73.246, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.574, "architecture_energy": 27.561, "architecture_maturity": 10.787, "architecture_confidence": 62.522, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.77, "rotation_up": 18.78, "upward_expansion": 18.41, "deceleration": 55.13, "rotation_down": 56.19, "downward_expansion": 48.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.00167, 0.001744, 0.00187, 0.001843 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0016, "trend_reference": 0.001748, "distance_from_trend": -0.084843, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.003553, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.549662, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.476886, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.28, "excess_performance": 0.228765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084843, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033498, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.549662, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023826, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224769, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156084, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.28, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.584137, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20708343, "relative_activity": 1.487426, "balance": 0.584137, "dry_up": 2.034153, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.275481, "annualized_volatility": 0.912067, "from_high_reference": -0.577836, "from_low_reference": 0.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.001748, "fair_value_reference": 0.003553, "structural_low": 0.001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.03125, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.03097, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.083333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.050347, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028158, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.375, "worst_return": -0.342857, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.330357, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.27712, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.78125, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.255504, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.805556, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129032, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.291667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.764706, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.385965, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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0.002017, 0.001991, 0.001867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.00165, "volume": 17218989, "typical_volume": 16509305.25, "trend": 0.001733, "fair_value": 0.003744, "relative_strength": -22.04709, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.428687, "energy": 9.09691, "activity_lines": [ 0.00184, 0.001946, 0.00197, 0.001862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0016, "volume": 30582152, "typical_volume": 17699696.35, "trend": 0.001732, "fair_value": 0.003697, "relative_strength": -23.940287, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.824859, "energy": 20.671908, "activity_lines": [ 0.001727, 0.001872, 0.001942, 0.001853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0016, "volume": 34186942, "typical_volume": 19294763.7, "trend": 0.00173, "fair_value": 0.003649, "relative_strength": -23.693619, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.877512, "energy": 31.987053, "activity_lines": [ 0.00165, 0.001805, 0.001911, 0.001845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00185, "volume": 27802596, "typical_volume": 13028334.5, "trend": 0.001742, "fair_value": 0.003602, "relative_strength": -11.587496, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.709501, "energy": 27.276249, "activity_lines": [ 0.0017, 0.001795, 0.001902, 0.001853 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0016, "volume": 20708343, "typical_volume": 13922263.65, "trend": 0.001748, "fair_value": 0.003553, "relative_strength": -22.476886, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.57424, "energy": 27.560914, "activity_lines": [ 0.00167, 0.001744, 0.00187, 0.001843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }