{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1d9e9d60-c6a6-4797-b049-916a007e1232", "symbol": "HUDCO", "name": "Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.049, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.519, "architecture_energy": 18.845, "architecture_maturity": 44.266, "architecture_confidence": 69.1, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.73, "rotation_up": 19.28, "upward_expansion": 39.27, "deceleration": 75.66, "rotation_down": 39.58, "downward_expansion": 37.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 198.468902, 201.948877, 204.202695, 200.556898 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 201.039993, "trend_reference": 197.104513, "distance_from_trend": 0.019966, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 196.008345, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025671, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.887347, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.053594, "excess_performance": 0.097303, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019966, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028858, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025671, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238587, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018873, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156928, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053594, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.359186, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10358533, "relative_activity": 0.658251, "balance": 0.359186, "dry_up": 0.726411, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052972, "annualized_volatility": 0.310622, "from_high_reference": -0.17152, "from_low_reference": 0.264402 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 197.104513, "fair_value_reference": 196.008345, "structural_low": 159.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.014546, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.407162, "worst_return": -0.143358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.165295, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.119206, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 1.492528, "worst_return": -0.267977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.104574, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.075281, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.687817, "worst_return": -0.31949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 194.216467, "relative_strength": -2.07285, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.49521, "energy": 8.183625, "activity_lines": [ 202.02333, 204.366434, 204.522941, 200.558374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 195.0, "volume": 13209808, "typical_volume": 15962962.0, "trend": 197.474276, "fair_value": 195.109547, "relative_strength": -4.129106, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.547512, "energy": 15.329821, "activity_lines": [ 198.841143, 202.514383, 204.131197, 200.326852 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 201.039993, "volume": 10358533, "typical_volume": 15736453.05, "trend": 197.104513, "fair_value": 196.008345, "relative_strength": -1.887347, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.519368, "energy": 18.845387, "activity_lines": [ 198.468902, 201.948877, 204.202695, 200.556898 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }