{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1da020b7-6214-42a5-bc59-5dac4a5e518c", "symbol": "002361", "name": "Anhui Shenjian New Materials Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.104, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.895, "architecture_energy": 77.731, "architecture_maturity": 17.032, "architecture_confidence": 74.412, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.96, "rotation_up": 9.12, "upward_expansion": 18.18, "deceleration": 37.21, "rotation_down": 76.99, "downward_expansion": 93.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.395333, 11.615455, 13.976476, 14.469978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.96, "trend_reference": 14.727333, "distance_from_trend": -0.187905, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.699812, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.785125, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.087162, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005042, "excess_performance": -0.002358, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.187905, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118107, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.785125, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.951676, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020872, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.884061, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005042, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.234369, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 910095179, "relative_activity": 1.249202, "balance": 0.234369, "dry_up": 0.71495, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.213982, "annualized_volatility": 0.959024, "from_high_reference": -0.500626, "from_low_reference": 0.97686 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.727333, "fair_value_reference": 6.699812, "structural_low": 8.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.021506, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.010015, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.197368, "worst_return": -0.157895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009804, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.019281, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.203077, "worst_return": -0.244618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.072191, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.037538, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.495385, "worst_return": -0.114275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -55.066175, "energy": 73.661676, "activity_lines": [ 10.973333, 12.706545, 14.910095, 15.025892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.17, "volume": 297411955, "typical_volume": 701729529.55, "trend": 14.806667, "fair_value": 6.647769, "relative_strength": -17.067001, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.620469, "energy": 85.361889, "activity_lines": [ 10.066667, 11.832909, 14.302143, 14.653634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.96, "volume": 910095179, "typical_volume": 728541055.2, "trend": 14.727333, "fair_value": 6.699812, "relative_strength": 2.087162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.894811, "energy": 77.731088, "activity_lines": [ 10.395333, 11.615455, 13.976476, 14.469978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }