{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1da3c84a-e45f-4fe2-b665-bcf53f4e7cd9", "symbol": "IOT", "name": "Samsara Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 51.053, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.903, "architecture_energy": 58.662, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.062, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.01, "rotation_up": 68.26, "upward_expansion": 86.2, "deceleration": 45.9, "rotation_down": 13.54, "downward_expansion": 10.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.744667, 36.346727, 34.45819, 33.331914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.88, "trend_reference": 32.052333, "distance_from_trend": 0.275414, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.046859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.103467, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.175962, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.608183, "excess_performance": 0.482558, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.275414, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027056, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.103467, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.284207, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.05176, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.32392, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.608183, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.856411, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23137924, "relative_activity": 0.813177, "balance": 0.856411, "dry_up": 0.951757, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117059, "annualized_volatility": 0.696248, "from_high_reference": -0.138825, "from_low_reference": 0.748503 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.052333, "fair_value_reference": 37.046859, "structural_low": 24.13, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.015702, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042082, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.336302, "worst_return": -0.313692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023909, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.01883, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.470385, "worst_return": -0.209704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.011522, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.097372, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.302566, "worst_return": -0.24203, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.001451, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.215133, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122941, "worst_return": -0.120039, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111437, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.117848, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.346734, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097312, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.135747, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.218084, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14044, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071944, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.082325, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-05-22", 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"relative_strength": 1.538961, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.559215, "energy": 61.829473, "activity_lines": [ 36.016, 34.792182, 33.107571, 32.303849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.11, "volume": 29405719, "typical_volume": 30089381.85, "trend": 31.700333, "fair_value": 36.86391, "relative_strength": -11.174432, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.377657, "energy": 52.83921, "activity_lines": [ 35.466, 34.667455, 33.180714, 32.387548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.27, "volume": 30264997, "typical_volume": 29077685.0, "trend": 31.812, "fair_value": 36.937051, "relative_strength": -0.770422, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.03307, "energy": 51.931154, "activity_lines": [ 36.208, 35.234545, 33.660762, 32.746882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.88, "volume": 23137924, "typical_volume": 28453722.15, "trend": 32.052333, "fair_value": 37.046859, "relative_strength": 5.175962, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.902596, "energy": 58.661796, "activity_lines": [ 37.744667, 36.346727, 34.45819, 33.331914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }