{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1da7272f-277f-4825-9fa2-ade84c22d1f3", "symbol": "EPP", "name": "ISHARES INC MSCI PACIFIC EX JAPAN ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.715, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.419, "architecture_energy": 81.95, "architecture_maturity": 9.934, "architecture_confidence": 66.199, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.49, "rotation_up": 81.55, "upward_expansion": 92.82, "deceleration": 41.85, "rotation_down": 11.15, "downward_expansion": 19.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.469333, 55.39033, 54.794126, 54.452193 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 58.01, "trend_reference": 54.004422, "distance_from_trend": 0.074171, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.690086, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.298051, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.780306, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.083664, "excess_performance": -0.041961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074171, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033145, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.298051, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024798, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007803, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016917, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083664, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.560722, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2676494, "relative_activity": 1.507238, "balance": 1.560722, "dry_up": 0.870579, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026207, "annualized_volatility": 0.164236, "from_high_reference": -0.001807, "from_low_reference": 0.22897 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.004422, "fair_value_reference": 44.690086, "structural_low": 50.901574, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.002076, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009006, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.062353, "worst_return": -0.042035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.022118, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.01941, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.098905, "worst_return": -0.057827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.06759, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.066114, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.083589, "worst_return": -0.050045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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13.27437, "activity_lines": [ 53.845619, 53.795079, 53.883813, 53.734951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.08, "volume": 923883, "typical_volume": 2079601.95, "trend": 53.388556, "fair_value": 44.330047, "relative_strength": -2.132753, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.958206, "energy": 22.71271, "activity_lines": [ 54.272, 54.002545, 54.00786, 53.856408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.41, "volume": 1027729, "typical_volume": 1913166.25, "trend": 53.546388, "fair_value": 44.435729, "relative_strength": -0.917, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.905248, "energy": 46.933931, "activity_lines": [ 54.736, 54.270866, 54.167453, 53.986824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.5, "volume": 1555654, "typical_volume": 1827830.05, "trend": 53.750402, "fair_value": 44.556466, "relative_strength": -0.024746, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.179032, "energy": 66.683177, "activity_lines": [ 55.464667, 54.714672, 54.419142, 54.17738 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.01, "volume": 2676494, "typical_volume": 1775760.4, "trend": 54.004422, "fair_value": 44.690086, "relative_strength": -0.780306, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.419402, "energy": 81.950027, "activity_lines": [ 56.469333, 55.39033, 54.794126, 54.452193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }