{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1daac3ea-f3e0-48b6-b388-04eccd3d29e2", "symbol": "EFRA", "name": "ISHARES ENVIRONMENTAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND INDUSTRIALS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.9, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.735, "architecture_energy": 61.547, "architecture_maturity": 13.402, "architecture_confidence": 67.089, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.74, "rotation_up": 71.16, "upward_expansion": 86.06, "deceleration": 46.91, "rotation_down": 13.15, "downward_expansion": 10.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.01304, 35.772034, 35.353619, 35.213335 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 36.6442, "trend_reference": 35.149479, "distance_from_trend": 0.042525, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.33874, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207835, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.278969, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.024144, "excess_performance": -0.16331, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042525, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025881, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207835, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013764, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06279, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057454, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024144, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.304794, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12425, "relative_activity": 3.468636, "balance": 2.304794, "dry_up": 1.417395, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020961, "annualized_volatility": 0.160496, "from_high_reference": -0.012017, "from_low_reference": 0.179809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.149479, "fair_value_reference": 30.33874, "structural_low": 32.93761, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.001629, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.021987, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.045833, "worst_return": -0.064089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018178, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.039659, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.079797, "worst_return": -0.050188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.04944, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.112394, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.054763, "worst_return": 0.017409, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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34.329387, 34.572751, 34.707707, 34.700752 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 34.9106, "volume": 1552, "typical_volume": 2962.2, "trend": 34.505747, "fair_value": 29.88949, "relative_strength": -14.201991, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.387739, "energy": 6.393438, "activity_lines": [ 34.54734, 34.581895, 34.70426, 34.733895 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 35.7846, "volume": 819, "typical_volume": 2651.25, "trend": 34.612665, "fair_value": 29.954991, "relative_strength": -7.661439, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.535218, "energy": 21.652721, "activity_lines": [ 34.988905, 34.767298, 34.783365, 34.816401 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 35.8641, "volume": 7645, "typical_volume": 2959.85, "trend": 34.717464, "fair_value": 30.023901, "relative_strength": -7.973944, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.574567, "energy": 43.812286, "activity_lines": [ 35.356517, 34.966187, 34.870021, 34.897139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 35.7444, "volume": 8693, "typical_volume": 3135.4, "trend": 34.810288, "fair_value": 30.086404, "relative_strength": -9.616354, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.004137, "energy": 58.991412, "activity_lines": [ 35.587165, 35.133828, 34.949398, 34.963393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.5101, "volume": 3127, "typical_volume": 3111.1, "trend": 34.900886, "fair_value": 30.144773, "relative_strength": -6.100333, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.392004, "energy": 64.96739, "activity_lines": [ 35.640013, 35.247455, 35.010981, 35.008542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.73, "volume": 1721, "typical_volume": 3042.0, "trend": 34.985612, "fair_value": 30.204029, "relative_strength": -3.821378, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.850762, "energy": 62.090477, "activity_lines": [ 35.69576, 35.396591, 35.101029, 35.062033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.755, "volume": 3036, "typical_volume": 3104.15, "trend": 35.068414, "fair_value": 30.268237, "relative_strength": -4.098353, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.146103, "energy": 50.413876, "activity_lines": [ 35.705213, 35.516905, 35.189163, 35.111671 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.6442, "volume": 12425, "typical_volume": 3582.1, "trend": 35.149479, "fair_value": 30.33874, "relative_strength": -6.278969, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.734518, "energy": 61.546772, "activity_lines": [ 36.01304, 35.772034, 35.353619, 35.213335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }