{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1dbae22b-544e-41a3-b0c2-ffe7830258ec", "symbol": "KTCG", "name": "Kapsch TrafficCom AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -78.51, "architecture_energy": 74.265, "architecture_maturity": 22.699, "architecture_confidence": 81.57, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.2, "rotation_up": 10.14, "upward_expansion": 15.47, "deceleration": 38.13, "rotation_down": 73.97, "downward_expansion": 88.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.857333, 5.027273, 5.232476, 5.319613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.6, "trend_reference": 5.468, "distance_from_trend": -0.158742, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.411987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.379384, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.7323, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.233333, "excess_performance": -0.40758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158742, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052996, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.379384, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097788, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.387323, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119069, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.233333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.719041, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78325, "relative_activity": 1.894872, "balance": 0.719041, "dry_up": 1.741667, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075753, "annualized_volatility": 0.287212, "from_high_reference": -0.407216, "from_low_reference": 0.022222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.468, "fair_value_reference": 7.411987, "structural_low": 4.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.019608, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": -0.041845, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.145, "worst_return": -0.122671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.053824, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.075064, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.05, "worst_return": -0.134921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.082, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.151283, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.138462, "worst_return": -0.263039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056338, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11976, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062162, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148936, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041451, 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"typical_volume": 33842.85, "trend": 5.548667, "fair_value": 7.486218, "relative_strength": -29.504358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.230913, "energy": 47.990178, "activity_lines": [ 5.206667, 5.281818, 5.378667, 5.43828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.62, "volume": 142857, "typical_volume": 38938.0, "trend": 5.510667, "fair_value": 7.449808, "relative_strength": -37.439725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.853051, "energy": 63.33804, "activity_lines": [ 5.012, 5.145455, 5.305143, 5.378366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.6, "volume": 78325, "typical_volume": 41335.25, "trend": 5.468, "fair_value": 7.411987, "relative_strength": -38.7323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.510421, "energy": 74.265046, "activity_lines": [ 4.857333, 5.027273, 5.232476, 5.319613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }