{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1dbb54f6-0874-4dfd-827e-7e97d04105f3", "symbol": "SIMAT", "name": "Simat Technologies Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.094, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -56.215, "architecture_energy": 66.962, "architecture_maturity": 13.138, "architecture_confidence": 71.32, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.21, "rotation_up": 16.64, "upward_expansion": 21.6, "deceleration": 43.24, "rotation_down": 77.36, "downward_expansion": 65.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.209333, 1.248545, 1.294333, 1.286882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.14, "trend_reference": 1.287, "distance_from_trend": -0.114219, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.329173, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.142324, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.037382, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.109375, "excess_performance": -0.3017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114219, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019109, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.142324, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170374, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.321155, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.109375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.645543, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7514500, "relative_activity": 0.753978, "balance": 2.645543, "dry_up": 0.553102, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066127, "annualized_volatility": 0.513655, "from_high_reference": -0.313253, "from_low_reference": 0.566726 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.287, "fair_value_reference": 1.329173, "structural_low": 0.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.00206, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017977, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.027586, "worst_return": -0.180233, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.193142, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.09427, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.193103, "worst_return": -0.193182, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.372061, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.234596, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.261364, "worst_return": -0.482759, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.063578, 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"end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.294521, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110091, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.407849, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", 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[ 1.325333, 1.348909, 1.32581, 1.312667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.26, "volume": 4730700, "typical_volume": 10531175.0, "trend": 1.31, "fair_value": 1.335624, "relative_strength": -8.03257, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.484081, "energy": 17.530997, "activity_lines": [ 1.298, 1.330182, 1.323476, 1.30929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.25, "volume": 7697000, "typical_volume": 10018610.0, "trend": 1.304333, "fair_value": 1.333718, "relative_strength": -9.953621, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.828354, "energy": 24.896788, "activity_lines": [ 1.274667, 1.311818, 1.320143, 1.305419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.24, "volume": 3599700, "typical_volume": 9917400.0, "trend": 1.303333, "fair_value": 1.332043, "relative_strength": -11.090566, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.217824, "energy": 41.313937, "activity_lines": [ 1.256667, 1.294727, 1.315667, 1.301269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.24, "volume": 3238700, "typical_volume": 9885830.0, "trend": 1.299667, "fair_value": 1.33084, "relative_strength": -10.269977, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.639148, "energy": 50.278006, "activity_lines": [ 1.246, 1.279455, 1.310048, 1.297183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.14, "volume": 7514500, "typical_volume": 9966470.0, "trend": 1.287, "fair_value": 1.329173, "relative_strength": -17.037382, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.21459, "energy": 66.961679, "activity_lines": [ 1.209333, 1.248545, 1.294333, 1.286882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }