{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1dbe170d-03df-47ba-a093-1627bcd492a8", "symbol": "XMAW", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI AC World Screened UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.879, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.579, "architecture_energy": 58.037, "architecture_maturity": 90.902, "architecture_confidence": 55.86, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.22, "rotation_up": 48.79, "upward_expansion": 76.31, "deceleration": 71.44, "rotation_down": 29.37, "downward_expansion": 14.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.865334, 49.778546, 49.082381, 47.986366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 50.869999, "trend_reference": 46.704833, "distance_from_trend": 0.089181, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.146847, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.299466, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.932276, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.147142, "excess_performance": -0.02375, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089181, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045221, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.299466, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029539, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029323, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015801, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.147142, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.656807, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70833, "relative_activity": 1.763289, "balance": 2.656807, "dry_up": 1.361332, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020527, "annualized_volatility": 0.12377, "from_high_reference": -0.002549, "from_low_reference": 0.256515 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.704833, "fair_value_reference": 39.146847, "structural_low": 41.904999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.011383, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007222, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.064419, "worst_return": -0.08472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.025864, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.017963, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.095043, "worst_return": -0.158486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.078774, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.021728, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.144616, "worst_return": -0.077997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 38.656366, "relative_strength": -2.44047, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.543535, "energy": 79.576898, "activity_lines": [ 49.904001, 49.526728, 48.105643, 47.095333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.365002, "volume": 80803, "typical_volume": 42271.7, "trend": 46.1495, "fair_value": 38.777263, "relative_strength": -2.691448, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.309344, "energy": 63.935647, "activity_lines": [ 49.781001, 49.567546, 48.354524, 47.315205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.450001, "volume": 34413, "typical_volume": 40158.45, "trend": 46.337667, "fair_value": 38.89502, "relative_strength": -2.30811, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.973478, "energy": 61.431642, "activity_lines": [ 49.661335, 49.593001, 48.589762, 47.52814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.080002, "volume": 32695, "typical_volume": 39586.3, "trend": 46.509833, "fair_value": 39.014283, "relative_strength": -3.625037, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.161347, "energy": 46.985329, "activity_lines": [ 49.455668, 49.526183, 48.763382, 47.705065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.869999, "volume": 70833, "typical_volume": 40170.95, "trend": 46.704833, "fair_value": 39.146847, "relative_strength": -2.932276, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.579493, "energy": 58.036734, "activity_lines": [ 49.865334, 49.778546, 49.082381, 47.986366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }