{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1dc0bb55-d995-4c1a-9d51-8373f8fa3756", "symbol": "SPBW", "name": "ALLIANZIM BUFFER20 ALLOCATION ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.272, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.443, "architecture_energy": 90.126, "architecture_maturity": 18.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.65, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.67, "rotation_up": 67.03, "upward_expansion": 96.83, "deceleration": 42.25, "rotation_down": 24.24, "downward_expansion": 21.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.927293, 28.824965, 28.658071, 28.407035 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 29.1587, "trend_reference": 28.106253, "distance_from_trend": 0.037445, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.730471, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.090841, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.971402, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.055538, "excess_performance": -0.070087, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037445, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018108, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.090841, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012201, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059714, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00157, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055538, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.697062, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63052, "relative_activity": 0.808527, "balance": 2.697062, "dry_up": 0.860461, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007599, "annualized_volatility": 0.046272, "from_high_reference": -0.004823, "from_low_reference": 0.106277 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.106253, "fair_value_reference": 26.730471, "structural_low": 26.89, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.84, "volume": 92458, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.78, "volume": 84641, "typical_volume": 85066.1, "trend": 27.963913, "fair_value": 26.648257, "relative_strength": -3.953416, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.294467, "energy": 60.266007, "activity_lines": [ 28.745073, 28.683131, 28.461062, 28.229931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.7233, "volume": 42325, "typical_volume": 84623.15, "trend": 28.00569, "fair_value": 26.673875, "relative_strength": -3.442577, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.365397, "energy": 79.594089, "activity_lines": [ 28.747227, 28.699365, 28.514425, 28.278924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.8865, "volume": 78390, "typical_volume": 85507.8, "trend": 28.053793, "fair_value": 26.700859, "relative_strength": -3.770685, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.71243, "energy": 83.292679, "activity_lines": [ 28.802887, 28.740487, 28.577087, 28.335751 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.1587, "volume": 63052, "typical_volume": 77983.8, "trend": 28.106253, "fair_value": 26.730471, "relative_strength": -5.971402, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.443122, "energy": 90.126211, "activity_lines": [ 28.927293, 28.824965, 28.658071, 28.407035 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }