{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1dc4c556-93bd-4448-9f42-8062be1ca6f7", "symbol": "JLS", "name": "Nuveen Mortgage and Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.46, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.474, "architecture_energy": 33.858, "architecture_maturity": 16.181, "architecture_confidence": 89.734, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.16, "rotation_up": 22.37, "upward_expansion": 8.83, "deceleration": 52.83, "rotation_down": 47.38, "downward_expansion": 73.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.310096, 17.317756, 17.534948, 17.620586 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.3, "trend_reference": 17.711305, "distance_from_trend": -0.023223, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.72528, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.100139, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.53256, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035932, "excess_performance": -0.161557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023223, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002414, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.100139, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125326, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058032, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035932, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.551427, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 126486, "relative_activity": 1.192457, "balance": 0.551427, "dry_up": 1.176911, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022585, "annualized_volatility": 0.106747, "from_high_reference": -0.063328, "from_low_reference": 0.02089 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.711305, "fair_value_reference": 15.72528, "structural_low": 17.016024, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.004746, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.015331, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.031846, "worst_return": -0.044378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.020542, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008574, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.090152, "worst_return": -0.080182, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.018244, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011442, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.034665, "worst_return": -0.071154, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-37.59785, "energy": 46.007962, "activity_lines": [ 17.402145, 17.668774, 17.777389, 17.778221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 17.238362, "volume": 114447, "typical_volume": 94618.3, "trend": 17.719362, "fair_value": 15.56058, "relative_strength": -11.066191, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.648591, "energy": 55.837555, "activity_lines": [ 17.306795, 17.564128, 17.722652, 17.746522 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.297838, "volume": 106881, "typical_volume": 97255.1, "trend": 17.716787, "fair_value": 15.593802, "relative_strength": -11.63572, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.868052, "energy": 55.76157, "activity_lines": [ 17.276345, 17.481608, 17.677644, 17.719327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.5368, "volume": 117737, "typical_volume": 98910.05, "trend": 17.722087, "fair_value": 15.629368, "relative_strength": -8.716239, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.576441, "energy": 50.745901, "activity_lines": [ 17.349472, 17.452675, 17.658716, 17.707715 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.26, "volume": 92818, "typical_volume": 99145.3, "trend": 17.719428, "fair_value": 15.661726, "relative_strength": -9.365973, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.292908, "energy": 39.568042, "activity_lines": [ 17.335269, 17.387254, 17.614781, 17.677903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.25, "volume": 162307, "typical_volume": 102806.9, "trend": 17.718972, "fair_value": 15.6941, "relative_strength": -10.061893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.565248, "energy": 35.325022, "activity_lines": [ 17.315629, 17.339666, 17.571322, 17.647617 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.3, "volume": 126486, "typical_volume": 106071.75, "trend": 17.711305, "fair_value": 15.72528, "relative_strength": -12.53256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.47421, "energy": 33.85772, "activity_lines": [ 17.310096, 17.317756, 17.534948, 17.620586 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }