{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1dcfcb34-0c9f-4e99-ac55-222246769cd0", "symbol": "BRT", "name": "BRT Realty Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 78.123, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.732, "architecture_energy": 15.825, "architecture_maturity": 22.251, "architecture_confidence": 75.746, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.84, "rotation_up": 28.02, "upward_expansion": 58.15, "deceleration": 88.12, "rotation_down": 25.69, "downward_expansion": 15.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.754, 14.837167, 14.661922, 14.500781 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.41, "trend_reference": 14.387804, "distance_from_trend": 0.001543, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.166566, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.049884, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.212268, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.006583, "excess_performance": -0.132207, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001543, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015168, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.049884, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008029, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112123, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003006, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006583, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.252477, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 318332, "relative_activity": 1.49403, "balance": 1.252477, "dry_up": 0.888601, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055, "annualized_volatility": 0.192082, "from_high_reference": -0.090766, "from_low_reference": 0.093489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.387804, "fair_value_reference": 15.166566, "structural_low": 13.178, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.018222, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.064515, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.018222, "worst_return": 0.018222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.076943, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.008208, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.076943, "worst_return": -0.076943, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.150869, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.174029, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150869, "worst_return": 0.150869, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001274, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004759, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027919, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100466, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069634, "active": false }, { "regime": 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14.85, "volume": 183258, "typical_volume": 222618.8, "trend": 14.321924, "fair_value": 15.207898, "relative_strength": -7.365841, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.557814, "energy": 52.595248, "activity_lines": [ 14.959333, 14.772029, 14.478599, 14.385384 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.9, "volume": 131827, "typical_volume": 224694.7, "trend": 14.344014, "fair_value": 15.193773, "relative_strength": -5.314325, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.507489, "energy": 45.832436, "activity_lines": [ 14.942745, 14.824109, 14.538267, 14.422679 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.99, "volume": 155078, "typical_volume": 224020.85, "trend": 14.365726, "fair_value": 15.186458, "relative_strength": -3.900373, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.532352, "energy": 30.50627, "activity_lines": [ 14.952667, 14.883735, 14.604113, 14.464355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.91, "volume": 152097, "typical_volume": 221661.85, "trend": 14.389678, "fair_value": 15.177654, "relative_strength": -5.237047, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.591587, "energy": 27.318756, "activity_lines": [ 14.912667, 14.911567, 14.659333, 14.49947 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.41, "volume": 318332, "typical_volume": 213069.3, "trend": 14.387804, "fair_value": 15.166566, "relative_strength": -11.212268, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.732223, "energy": 15.825376, "activity_lines": [ 14.754, 14.837167, 14.661922, 14.500781 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }