{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1dcfeed8-8b3a-409f-9148-0bde9f16653e", "symbol": "BTCS", "name": "BTCS Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.123, "architecture_energy": 52.549, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.15, "rotation_up": 26.52, "upward_expansion": 8.66, "deceleration": 52.14, "rotation_down": 49.52, "downward_expansion": 79.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.044633, 1.0585, 1.267493, 1.388752 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.11, "trend_reference": 1.592653, "distance_from_trend": -0.30305, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.120976, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.476656, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -62.664265, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.358382, "excess_performance": -0.545835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.30305, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288888, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.476656, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.478382, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.626643, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194898, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.358382, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.278371, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3634443, "relative_activity": 0.89395, "balance": 0.278371, "dry_up": 0.787563, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.19517, "annualized_volatility": 0.720682, "from_high_reference": -0.819512, "from_low_reference": 0.152768 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.592653, "fair_value_reference": 2.120976, "structural_low": 0.9629, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.032795, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.037255, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 2.625, "worst_return": -0.413203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.119719, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.103278, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 1.268156, "worst_return": -0.567901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.066344, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.144277, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.106748, "worst_return": -0.635739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.302251, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11062, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.450331, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.17126, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 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-69.201965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.488566, "energy": 71.374481, "activity_lines": [ 1.082667, 1.219091, 1.443905, 1.574043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.9893, "volume": 4176932, "typical_volume": 4177253.05, "trend": 1.776977, "fair_value": 2.121897, "relative_strength": -68.404272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.629708, "energy": 70.206935, "activity_lines": [ 1.048433, 1.145691, 1.391076, 1.518514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9903, "volume": 2573460, "typical_volume": 4107741.5, "trend": 1.712987, "fair_value": 2.1207, "relative_strength": -66.802025, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.647963, "energy": 59.558026, "activity_lines": [ 1.023913, 1.093031, 1.341251, 1.467761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.03, "volume": 2422826, "typical_volume": 4080010.9, "trend": 1.651653, "fair_value": 2.120518, "relative_strength": -64.761443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.73175, "energy": 57.080222, "activity_lines": [ 1.01994, 1.062856, 1.298872, 1.423697 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.11, "volume": 3634443, "typical_volume": 4065597.95, "trend": 1.592653, "fair_value": 2.120976, "relative_strength": -62.664265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.123016, "energy": 52.549334, "activity_lines": [ 1.044633, 1.0585, 1.267493, 1.388752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }