{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1dd17001-b6eb-4d56-a606-1bd049e3ebd8", "symbol": "IDEA", "name": "Vodafone Idea Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.678, "architecture_energy": 30.019, "architecture_maturity": 67.643, "architecture_confidence": 94.319, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.68, "rotation_up": 19.39, "upward_expansion": 55.33, "deceleration": 93.96, "rotation_down": 34.96, "downward_expansion": 21.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.116667, 13.595455, 13.30219, 12.549742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.73, "trend_reference": 11.754, "distance_from_trend": 0.083036, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.045256, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.152531, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.075434, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.144784, "excess_performance": 0.188493, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083036, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093056, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.152531, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084083, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.190754, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099513, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.144784, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.314936, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1158951364, "relative_activity": 0.68224, "balance": 1.314936, "dry_up": 0.8355, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07082, "annualized_volatility": 0.380654, "from_high_reference": -0.165246, "from_low_reference": 1.080065 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.754, "fair_value_reference": 11.045256, "structural_low": 8.13, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.051425, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.048529, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.592233, "worst_return": -0.318414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.180645, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.13519, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.048544, "worst_return": -0.475806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.075305, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.070547, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.164727, "worst_return": -0.411801, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.281895, 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"start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.203368, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022631, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046997, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.12585, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163832, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070866, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.099804, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080309, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080936, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030465, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.6, "volume": 365075663, "typical_volume": 505210747.2, "trend": 7.1, "fair_value": 9.246154, "relative_strength": -6.912439, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.628861, 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12.850619, 12.159312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.74, "volume": 1423237091, "typical_volume": 1836251359.45, "trend": 11.624333, "fair_value": 10.954423, "relative_strength": 34.394449, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.061529, "energy": 47.996366, "activity_lines": [ 14.083333, 14.249636, 13.042476, 12.299634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.13, "volume": 1668456770, "typical_volume": 1818640427.9, "trend": 11.664, "fair_value": 10.985064, "relative_strength": 29.929443, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.52272, "energy": 35.739026, "activity_lines": [ 13.716, 14.060909, 13.161238, 12.396774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.01, "volume": 1426561381, "typical_volume": 1778264006.3, "trend": 11.705, "fair_value": 11.015577, "relative_strength": 24.003151, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.27856, "energy": 27.645616, "activity_lines": [ 13.428, 13.847091, 13.253952, 12.483613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.73, "volume": 1158951364, "typical_volume": 1698744485.0, "trend": 11.754, "fair_value": 11.045256, "relative_strength": 19.075434, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.677563, "energy": 30.018693, "activity_lines": [ 13.116667, 13.595455, 13.30219, 12.549742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }