{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1dd6d5b1-2fb0-448f-8904-4c30715f20ad", "symbol": "TPX-B", "name": "Molson Coors Canada Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 50.866, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 2.506, "architecture_energy": 14.631, "architecture_maturity": 17.444, "architecture_confidence": 60.688, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.59, "rotation_up": 41.46, "upward_expansion": 34.88, "deceleration": 41.98, "rotation_down": 17.64, "downward_expansion": 43.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.767334, 59.846364, 59.543979, 60.268748 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 62.0, "trend_reference": 61.754576, "distance_from_trend": 0.003974, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 70.301197, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.11808, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.651255, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.095212, "excess_performance": -0.215634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003974, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022839, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.11808, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047722, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126513, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056977, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095212, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.875, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2300, "relative_activity": 1.121951, "balance": 1.875, "dry_up": 1.414634, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045301, "annualized_volatility": 0.278462, "from_high_reference": -0.144508, "from_low_reference": 0.127273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.754576, "fair_value_reference": 70.301197, "structural_low": 55.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.016356, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.012532, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.141228, "worst_return": -0.065555, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.106632, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.023917, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162162, "worst_return": -0.038038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.089541, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.021527, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202451, "worst_return": -0.137131, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040396, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029079, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.085835, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044776, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06863, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", 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"volume": 800, "typical_volume": 2455.0, "trend": 61.966391, "fair_value": 70.518564, "relative_strength": -15.537727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.918401, "energy": 18.370185, "activity_lines": [ 59.202001, 58.832948, 59.221783, 60.322977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.0, "volume": 5200, "typical_volume": 2395.0, "trend": 61.874163, "fair_value": 70.398802, "relative_strength": -11.864462, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.089963, "energy": 15.083584, "activity_lines": [ 59.881334, 59.261637, 59.336872, 60.260629 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.0, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 2050.0, "trend": 61.754576, "fair_value": 70.301197, "relative_strength": -12.651255, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.50571, "energy": 14.631209, "activity_lines": [ 60.767334, 59.846364, 59.543979, 60.268748 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }