{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1ddf970b-d040-4671-9640-f08d11f7fb5f", "symbol": "603978", "name": "Shenzhen SunXing Light Alloys Materials Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.512, "architecture_energy": 78.793, "architecture_maturity": 24.49, "architecture_confidence": 81.984, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.57, "rotation_up": 10.84, "upward_expansion": 20.75, "deceleration": 34.18, "rotation_down": 75.78, "downward_expansion": 91.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.744, 21.516545, 24.316381, 24.906839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.639999, "trend_reference": 25.543667, "distance_from_trend": -0.231121, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.777179, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.104787, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.355554, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.247221, "excess_performance": -0.204017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.231121, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082011, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.104787, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.609479, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213556, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.396331, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.247221, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.884918, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46295564, "relative_activity": 0.859088, "balance": 0.884918, "dry_up": 0.956323, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.202138, "annualized_volatility": 0.763847, "from_high_reference": -0.506781, "from_low_reference": 0.280313 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.543667, "fair_value_reference": 17.777179, "structural_low": 15.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.00461, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000772, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.357914, "worst_return": -0.214755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.021335, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.028288, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.0287, "worst_return": -0.336119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.037215, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014841, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.911277, "worst_return": -0.143418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127172, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002929, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.256716, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.138864, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.205298, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.743198, "energy": 54.977244, "activity_lines": [ 23.715333, 25.563636, 26.513191, 26.437333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.620001, "volume": 60311847, "typical_volume": 54694886.6, "trend": 26.297, "fair_value": 17.767885, "relative_strength": -27.191989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.728028, "energy": 74.518473, "activity_lines": [ 21.165334, 23.806, 25.678476, 25.860215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.709999, "volume": 49210659, "typical_volume": 54131892.2, "trend": 25.830333, "fair_value": 17.766731, "relative_strength": -27.035655, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.373351, "energy": 80.674491, "activity_lines": [ 19.302667, 22.360727, 24.883476, 25.306215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.639999, "volume": 46295564, "typical_volume": 53889225.85, "trend": 25.543667, "fair_value": 17.777179, "relative_strength": -21.355554, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.511962, "energy": 78.793414, "activity_lines": [ 18.744, 21.516545, 24.316381, 24.906839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }