{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1de8be75-313f-4f59-b467-a549d40800ae", "symbol": "FPP", "name": "Fragrant Prosperity Holdings Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 76.524, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.55, "architecture_energy": 23.233, "architecture_maturity": 13.896, "architecture_confidence": 43.129, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.35, "rotation_up": 38.02, "upward_expansion": 63.19, "deceleration": 61.95, "rotation_down": 20.79, "downward_expansion": 11.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.004827, 0.004862, 0.004604, 0.00445 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0043, "trend_reference": 0.004388, "distance_from_trend": -0.020129, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.005649, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.238809, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.336001, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.011494, "excess_performance": -0.06273, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020129, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161198, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.238809, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084307, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.30336, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.187743, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011494, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.652521, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3571310, "relative_activity": 0.360083, "balance": 1.652521, "dry_up": 0.428506, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.183184, "annualized_volatility": 0.619088, "from_high_reference": -0.599628, "from_low_reference": 0.34375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.004388, "fair_value_reference": 0.005649, "structural_low": 0.0032, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.011474, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.684211, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.689696, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.684211, "worst_return": 1.684211, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.757895, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.711356, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.757895, "worst_return": 0.757895, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12963, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070423, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.287879, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"typical_volume": 15774815.6, "trend": 0.004895, "fair_value": 0.005656, "relative_strength": -27.814007, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.883739, "energy": 22.98423, "activity_lines": [ 0.004687, 0.00443, 0.004202, 0.004347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.0047, "volume": 273257, "typical_volume": 14769844.4, "trend": 0.004768, "fair_value": 0.005654, "relative_strength": -28.952786, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.051718, "energy": 28.420089, "activity_lines": [ 0.004733, 0.004516, 0.004258, 0.004335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.00475, "volume": 4841217, "typical_volume": 14816081.45, "trend": 0.004657, "fair_value": 0.005651, "relative_strength": -25.266416, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.837511, "energy": 31.452992, "activity_lines": [ 0.004767, 0.004591, 0.004317, 0.004334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.00585, "volume": 6977755, "typical_volume": 15059625.9, "trend": 0.00461, "fair_value": 0.005656, "relative_strength": -7.370287, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.583856, "energy": 50.535575, "activity_lines": [ 0.00512, 0.004854, 0.004478, 0.004411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00515, "volume": 2630471, "typical_volume": 14695923.3, "trend": 0.004527, "fair_value": 0.005656, "relative_strength": -18.263389, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.217823, "energy": 40.505985, "activity_lines": [ 0.005173, 0.004953, 0.004565, 0.004445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00475, "volume": 3820193, "typical_volume": 10319936.55, "trend": 0.004452, "fair_value": 0.005654, "relative_strength": -24.216081, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.944995, "energy": 44.49867, "activity_lines": [ 0.005073, 0.004953, 0.004608, 0.00446 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0043, "volume": 3571310, "typical_volume": 9918016.8, "trend": 0.004388, "fair_value": 0.005649, "relative_strength": -30.336001, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.550475, "energy": 23.233248, "activity_lines": [ 0.004827, 0.004862, 0.004604, 0.00445 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }