{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1df1cd80-ce27-44f1-81d1-11584ba2efba", "symbol": "ALREA", "name": "R\u00e9alit\u00e9s S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.304, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.218, "architecture_energy": 29.88, "architecture_maturity": 76.648, "architecture_confidence": 83.791, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.09, "rotation_up": 27.81, "upward_expansion": 18.58, "deceleration": 46.91, "rotation_down": 28.97, "downward_expansion": 66.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.562733, 0.5372, 0.592848, 0.663862 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.61, "trend_reference": 0.735467, "distance_from_trend": -0.170595, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.916537, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.896899, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.814936, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.322222, "excess_performance": -0.375534, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170595, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015885, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.896899, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014561, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001866, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.322222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.561943, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2740, "relative_activity": 0.261323, "balance": 1.561943, "dry_up": 0.198734, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140227, "annualized_volatility": 1.787365, "from_high_reference": -0.691139, "from_low_reference": 1.110727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.735467, "fair_value_reference": 5.916537, "structural_low": 0.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.044728, "positive_rate": 0.348837, "directional_follow_through": 0.627907, "median_excess_return": -0.054122, "regime_survival": 0.930233, "best_return": 2.577778, "worst_return": -0.67341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.122807, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": -0.190363, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.955556, "worst_return": -0.55, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.211661, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.306728, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.301887, "worst_return": -0.743165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-10-07", "end": "2023-02-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067114, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-02-10", "end": "2023-02-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038585, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-03-03", "end": "2023-03-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050676, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-31", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.979257, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.714286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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0.590733, 0.633964, 0.719743, 0.744555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.478, "volume": 205, "typical_volume": 23508.6, "trend": 0.723667, "fair_value": 6.551405, "relative_strength": -44.3317, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.116501, "energy": 75.881703, "activity_lines": [ 0.541333, 0.598745, 0.690986, 0.728529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.365, "volume": 3244, "typical_volume": 21862.75, "trend": 0.716367, "fair_value": 6.426122, "relative_strength": -55.848241, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.259192, "energy": 94.7837, "activity_lines": [ 0.468933, 0.548945, 0.651381, 0.705389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.48, "volume": 2346, "typical_volume": 15224.5, "trend": 0.715367, "fair_value": 6.293418, "relative_strength": -41.037513, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.90109, "energy": 87.589227, "activity_lines": [ 0.4572, 0.527782, 0.624133, 0.69014 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.502, "volume": 1509, "typical_volume": 13781.3, "trend": 0.7188, "fair_value": 6.163769, "relative_strength": -37.536816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.216719, "energy": 86.194332, "activity_lines": [ 0.464133, 0.514255, 0.60341, 0.676374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.64, "volume": 1740, "typical_volume": 11329.45, "trend": 0.725133, "fair_value": 6.039084, "relative_strength": -20.409797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.134465, "energy": 53.430812, "activity_lines": [ 0.523733, 0.528036, 0.598819, 0.67129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.61, "volume": 2740, "typical_volume": 10485.1, "trend": 0.735467, "fair_value": 5.916537, "relative_strength": -24.814936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.217809, "energy": 29.879881, "activity_lines": [ 0.562733, 0.5372, 0.592848, 0.663862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }