{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1dfa150f-b76b-4d70-b80e-7857f9505e96", "symbol": "ITM", "name": "VANECK INTERMEDIATE MUNI ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.952, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.382, "architecture_energy": 75.905, "architecture_maturity": 6.751, "architecture_confidence": 79.468, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.06, "rotation_up": 8.17, "upward_expansion": 17.13, "deceleration": 37.11, "rotation_down": 75.26, "downward_expansion": 90.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.038594, 46.282633, 46.407556, 46.481433 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46.17, "trend_reference": 46.607416, "distance_from_trend": -0.009385, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.433886, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.039072, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.235132, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.019517, "excess_performance": -0.145142, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009385, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000332, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.039072, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016785, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112351, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016885, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019517, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.946727, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1508718, "relative_activity": 1.251397, "balance": 0.946727, "dry_up": 1.264078, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007036, "annualized_volatility": 0.044784, "from_high_reference": -0.029114, "from_low_reference": 0.040869 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.607416, "fair_value_reference": 44.433886, "structural_low": 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"relative_strength": -9.286149, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.526866, "energy": 24.820182, "activity_lines": [ 46.716293, 46.669423, 46.596695, 46.646697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.392739, "volume": 980731, "typical_volume": 1141275.85, "trend": 46.683514, "fair_value": 44.36374, "relative_strength": -7.997789, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.52679, "energy": 17.658632, "activity_lines": [ 46.602716, 46.632036, 46.576542, 46.627748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.744517, "volume": 2195923, "typical_volume": 1196914.1, "trend": 46.655358, "fair_value": 44.384534, "relative_strength": -8.537589, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.413042, "energy": 62.436984, "activity_lines": [ 46.290759, 46.479607, 46.499926, 46.567167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.784407, "volume": 1410655, "typical_volume": 1217901.0, "trend": 46.627924, "fair_value": 44.407797, "relative_strength": -9.166003, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.523958, "energy": 81.640327, "activity_lines": [ 46.064306, 46.341886, 46.433222, 46.510977 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.17, "volume": 1508718, "typical_volume": 1205627.3, "trend": 46.607416, "fair_value": 44.433886, "relative_strength": -11.235132, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.381986, "energy": 75.904572, "activity_lines": [ 46.038594, 46.282633, 46.407556, 46.481433 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }