{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1dfcedf6-1ac3-4914-bd26-a56d52618485", "symbol": "EQEU", "name": "Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF (EUR Hdg)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.948, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.474, "architecture_energy": 28.454, "architecture_maturity": 69.935, "architecture_confidence": 89.523, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.67, "rotation_up": 25.01, "upward_expansion": 55.77, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 35.47, "downward_expansion": 21.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 495.473332, 500.063636, 499.12619, 485.617204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 510.0, "trend_reference": 469.316666, "distance_from_trend": 0.086686, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 376.771525, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.353605, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.957626, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.175251, "excess_performance": 0.110611, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086686, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047792, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.353605, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050005, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039576, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124458, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.175251, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.411279, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6886, "relative_activity": 1.212484, "balance": 1.411279, "dry_up": 1.251045, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034804, "annualized_volatility": 0.199536, "from_high_reference": -0.027645, "from_low_reference": 0.277555 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 469.316666, "fair_value_reference": 376.771525, "structural_low": 399.200012, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008451, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.004623, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.104446, "worst_return": -0.094916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.067743, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.034829, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.141528, "worst_return": -0.080558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.165892, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.083213, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.201345, "worst_return": -0.035462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 510.906665, 511.669092, 493.523571, 478.541612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 491.100006, "volume": 3026, "typical_volume": 5704.65, "trend": 464.439998, "fair_value": 372.640435, "relative_strength": 6.813248, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.948735, "energy": 37.104609, "activity_lines": [ 504.046667, 508.085456, 495.197143, 480.366989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 487.0, "volume": 11105, "typical_volume": 5850.1, "trend": 465.838332, "fair_value": 373.93691, "relative_strength": 4.519701, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.591328, "energy": 25.732786, "activity_lines": [ 497.146667, 503.943638, 496.207381, 481.822473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 481.899994, "volume": 7403, "typical_volume": 5880.5, "trend": 467.243332, "fair_value": 375.236268, "relative_strength": 1.110914, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.156995, "energy": 24.953007, "activity_lines": [ 490.899998, 499.190909, 496.465238, 482.858709 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 510.0, "volume": 6886, "typical_volume": 5679.25, "trend": 469.316666, "fair_value": 376.771525, "relative_strength": 3.957626, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.473765, "energy": 28.454111, "activity_lines": [ 495.473332, 500.063636, 499.12619, 485.617204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }