{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e0558b1-a949-45da-bf8a-3ccd66ecabf2", "symbol": "002284", "name": "Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.975, "architecture_energy": 63.759, "architecture_maturity": 60.845, "architecture_confidence": 95.13, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 25.53, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.87, "rotation_down": 54.92, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.216, 9.468358, 10.541533, 11.612854 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.48, "trend_reference": 13.097551, "distance_from_trend": -0.276201, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.056218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0573, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.444824, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.440708, "excess_performance": -0.448108, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.276201, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083568, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0573, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.401052, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.294448, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119663, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.440708, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.662135, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103933462, "relative_activity": 1.473643, "balance": 0.662135, "dry_up": 1.229964, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106347, "annualized_volatility": 0.395426, "from_high_reference": -0.491961, "from_low_reference": 0.121893 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.097551, "fair_value_reference": 10.056218, "structural_low": 8.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.065684, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.03848, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.246717, "worst_return": -0.130829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.049598, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.019568, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.660076, "worst_return": -0.068232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.303773, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.12668, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.472487, "worst_return": -0.051269, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.777252, "energy": 81.598968, "activity_lines": [ 9.488667, 10.109448, 11.376721, 12.441929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.71, "volume": 81524476, "typical_volume": 68215289.45, "trend": 13.492885, "fair_value": 10.06485, "relative_strength": -33.52142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.70636, "energy": 69.923049, "activity_lines": [ 9.158667, 9.736566, 11.020785, 12.122667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.39, "volume": 82704175, "typical_volume": 68957475.7, "trend": 13.279218, "fair_value": 10.05842, "relative_strength": -26.840333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.100711, "energy": 65.902694, "activity_lines": [ 9.177333, 9.562149, 10.763564, 11.857965 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.48, "volume": 103933462, "typical_volume": 70528232.75, "trend": 13.097551, "fair_value": 10.056218, "relative_strength": -29.444824, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.974708, "energy": 63.758553, "activity_lines": [ 9.216, 9.468358, 10.541533, 11.612854 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }