{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e078546-5faa-4462-a8f4-0e13838c3371", "symbol": "ASTS", "name": "AST SpaceMobile, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.196, "architecture_energy": 65.223, "architecture_maturity": 22.443, "architecture_confidence": 78.995, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.0, "rotation_up": 10.4, "upward_expansion": 13.77, "deceleration": 38.47, "rotation_down": 69.54, "downward_expansion": 87.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 1096.682662, 1181.203274, 1323.675713, 1382.84544 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1216.0, "trend_reference": 1483.909332, "distance_from_trend": -0.180543, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 996.515499, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.220252, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.12382, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.324444, "excess_performance": -0.269778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.180543, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011393, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.220252, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141336, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084417, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.324444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.743043, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10448, "relative_activity": 0.732599, "balance": 2.743043, "dry_up": 0.720767, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.217413, "annualized_volatility": 0.874191, "from_high_reference": -0.471304, "from_low_reference": 0.788235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1483.909332, "fair_value_reference": 996.515499, "structural_low": 924.77002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.177937, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.230526, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.344343, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.195979, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-13", "close": 545.0, "volume": 861, "typical_volume": null, "trend": 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.2449, "energy": 50.165742, "activity_lines": [ 1344.489348, 1450.513279, 1472.12243, 1501.951033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1016.73999, "volume": 18980, "typical_volume": 14835.35, "trend": 1528.246668, "fair_value": 994.078659, "relative_strength": -26.304788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.931402, "energy": 69.989772, "activity_lines": [ 1231.525342, 1363.433822, 1427.484524, 1468.212882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 982.919983, "volume": 6531, "typical_volume": 14198.2, "trend": 1518.159332, "fair_value": 993.964795, "relative_strength": -28.293644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.23732, "energy": 72.328122, "activity_lines": [ 1134.393998, 1274.976001, 1381.250856, 1433.030515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1027.0, "volume": 5158, "typical_volume": 14046.1, "trend": 1502.709332, "fair_value": 994.298484, "relative_strength": -25.553917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.326076, "energy": 73.460041, "activity_lines": [ 1076.427995, 1203.643274, 1342.206142, 1401.342816 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1216.0, "volume": 10448, "typical_volume": 14261.55, "trend": 1483.909332, "fair_value": 996.515499, "relative_strength": -12.12382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.195826, "energy": 65.22288, "activity_lines": [ 1096.682662, 1181.203274, 1323.675713, 1382.84544 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }