{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e0e5532-ad0a-4ca7-b369-6b6f49d19710", "symbol": "B52", "name": "B-52 Capital Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 63.038, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 6.463, "architecture_energy": 20.415, "architecture_maturity": 12.555, "architecture_confidence": 53.14, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.48, "rotation_up": 41.19, "upward_expansion": 40.42, "deceleration": 26.01, "rotation_down": 17.46, "downward_expansion": 44.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.27, 0.263091, 0.252476, 0.255269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.28, "trend_reference": 0.271333, "distance_from_trend": 0.031941, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.547942, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.488997, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.235814, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.176471, "excess_performance": -0.368796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031941, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06865, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.488997, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145553, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.262358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086375, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176471, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.181464, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 277800, "relative_activity": 0.756979, "balance": 1.181464, "dry_up": 0.553292, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107143, "annualized_volatility": 0.417998, "from_high_reference": -0.621622, "from_low_reference": 0.4 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.271333, "fair_value_reference": 0.547942, "structural_low": 0.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.008626, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.010376, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.545455, "worst_return": -0.290909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.028337, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.032828, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.363636, "worst_return": -0.309091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.085938, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.107911, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.672727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.309091, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.204788, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.085938, "worst_return": -0.367521, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.192076, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128205, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.486486, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.204545, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.321429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.37037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.195122, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076923, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.31, "volume": 844500, "typical_volume": 501810.0, "trend": 1.830667, "fair_value": 2.03829, "relative_strength": -32.030643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.455407, "energy": 66.173549, 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"trend": 0.282333, "fair_value": 0.567494, "relative_strength": -33.557053, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.686056, "energy": 17.581371, "activity_lines": [ 0.26, 0.251636, 0.245524, 0.256968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.25, "volume": 186100, "typical_volume": 366000.0, "trend": 0.278667, "fair_value": 0.561083, "relative_strength": -36.273107, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.880467, "energy": 13.710434, "activity_lines": [ 0.258, 0.252, 0.24581, 0.254882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.28, "volume": 210400, "typical_volume": 369130.0, "trend": 0.275333, "fair_value": 0.554288, "relative_strength": -27.771745, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.814015, "energy": 11.803437, "activity_lines": [ 0.264667, 0.257818, 0.249143, 0.254968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.28, "volume": 277800, "typical_volume": 366985.0, "trend": 0.271333, "fair_value": 0.547942, "relative_strength": -26.235814, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.462723, "energy": 20.414959, "activity_lines": [ 0.27, 0.263091, 0.252476, 0.255269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }