{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e101796-5c8c-4691-ad3c-1b3e98c5b8da", "symbol": "NAC", "name": "NAOS Ex-50 Opportunities Company Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.056, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.755, "architecture_energy": 16.895, "architecture_maturity": 75.447, "architecture_confidence": 69.828, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.76, "rotation_up": 32.96, "upward_expansion": 22.23, "deceleration": 41.26, "rotation_down": 26.61, "downward_expansion": 56.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.551, 0.543273, 0.552715, 0.563679 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.565, "trend_reference": 0.582547, "distance_from_trend": -0.030122, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.518706, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.089248, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.99423, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.07578, "excess_performance": -0.139485, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030122, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044331, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.089248, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002584, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119778, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07578, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.071937, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 227902, "relative_activity": 1.498861, "balance": 6.071937, "dry_up": 0.751874, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076923, "annualized_volatility": 0.320695, "from_high_reference": -0.158531, "from_low_reference": 0.264002 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.582547, "fair_value_reference": 0.518706, "structural_low": 0.495, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.01205, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.013929, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.309857, "worst_return": -0.299319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.015909, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.075284, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.167537, "worst_return": -0.286428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.078536, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.13163, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.281829, "worst_return": -0.353859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037434, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005951, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.211709, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115789, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082082, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": 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169073.15, "trend": 0.590444, "fair_value": 0.520514, "relative_strength": -1.536783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.27192, "energy": 31.805241, "activity_lines": [ 0.544, 0.544273, 0.556463, 0.569245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.525, "volume": 75806, "typical_volume": 158948.55, "trend": 0.585829, "fair_value": 0.519482, "relative_strength": -11.540118, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.517211, "energy": 25.630093, "activity_lines": [ 0.541667, 0.539545, 0.552579, 0.565023 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.565, "volume": 227902, "typical_volume": 152050.1, "trend": 0.582547, "fair_value": 0.518706, "relative_strength": -7.99423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.754757, "energy": 16.894957, "activity_lines": [ 0.551, 0.543273, 0.552715, 0.563679 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }