{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e14fcdc-fe5f-4434-aa02-d06cd5381218", "symbol": "SPRY", "name": "ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.502, "architecture_energy": 75.624, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.99, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.96, "rotation_up": 8.42, "upward_expansion": 17.11, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 77.38, "downward_expansion": 92.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.072, 7.016727, 7.692429, 7.974409 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.16, "trend_reference": 8.449167, "distance_from_trend": -0.270934, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.168654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.394217, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.582194, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.385842, "excess_performance": -0.573296, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.270934, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084977, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.394217, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260017, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.425822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052714, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.385842, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.440951, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10038020, "relative_activity": 1.094093, "balance": 0.440951, "dry_up": 1.335202, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.233757, "annualized_volatility": 0.642778, "from_high_reference": -0.648703, "from_low_reference": 0.254531 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.449167, "fair_value_reference": 10.168654, "structural_low": 4.9102, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.064732, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.056162, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.34188, "worst_return": -0.130941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.272329, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.1681, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.676357, "worst_return": -0.055188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.415633, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.362944, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.184343, "worst_return": -0.194956, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059075, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04793, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002761, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.139259, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026812, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 7.0, "volume": 8562725, "typical_volume": 8262935.95, "trend": 9.0725, "fair_value": 10.192564, "relative_strength": -37.701251, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.161399, "energy": 38.682188, "activity_lines": [ 7.944667, 8.385, 8.409881, 8.581688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.94, "volume": 17077073, "typical_volume": 8842011.95, "trend": 8.891167, "fair_value": 10.185128, "relative_strength": -44.766504, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.014669, "energy": 67.136626, "activity_lines": [ 7.145333, 7.929636, 8.174381, 8.379591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.13, "volume": 13322720, "typical_volume": 9112885.9, "trend": 8.679167, "fair_value": 10.172949, "relative_strength": -51.1438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.209954, "energy": 81.080261, "activity_lines": [ 6.323333, 7.354, 7.876595, 8.136935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.16, "volume": 10038020, "typical_volume": 9174741.55, "trend": 8.449167, "fair_value": 10.168654, "relative_strength": -42.582194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.502035, "energy": 75.623975, "activity_lines": [ 6.072, 7.016727, 7.692429, 7.974409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }