{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e21de3b-523d-41f9-9af1-3f58caff789f", "symbol": "002155", "name": "Hunan Gold Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.157, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.005, "architecture_energy": 43.289, "architecture_maturity": 18.621, "architecture_confidence": 82.862, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.57, "rotation_up": 20.82, "upward_expansion": 5.76, "deceleration": 51.54, "rotation_down": 51.85, "downward_expansion": 76.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.528, 23.813651, 24.825339, 26.323719 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.780001, "trend_reference": 27.767894, "distance_from_trend": -0.07159, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.769735, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.537293, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.084346, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.303243, "excess_performance": -0.310643, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07159, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031298, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.537293, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.394427, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000843, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058525, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.303243, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.026183, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 311794467, "relative_activity": 1.365364, "balance": 1.026183, "dry_up": 1.136154, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10278, "annualized_volatility": 0.550301, "from_high_reference": -0.409663, "from_low_reference": 0.436212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.767894, "fair_value_reference": 16.769735, "structural_low": 20.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.008197, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.021524, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.348579, "worst_return": -0.117181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.195873, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.23876, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.514212, "worst_return": -0.117195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.234974, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.325231, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.715535, "worst_return": -0.095902, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 22.18, "volume": 289340295, "typical_volume": 239774857.45, "trend": 27.561894, "fair_value": 16.578064, "relative_strength": -10.356295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.808271, "energy": 67.218889, "activity_lines": [ 22.754667, 23.655812, 25.224118, 26.732974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.049999, "volume": 213256000, "typical_volume": 228945034.45, "trend": 27.61156, "fair_value": 16.663671, "relative_strength": -5.499612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.706321, "energy": 69.624832, "activity_lines": [ 22.646666, 23.470084, 24.871086, 26.441884 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.780001, "volume": 311794467, "typical_volume": 228360015.45, "trend": 27.767894, "fair_value": 16.769735, "relative_strength": 0.084346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.004719, "energy": 43.288685, "activity_lines": [ 23.528, 23.813651, 24.825339, 26.323719 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }