{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e243228-aae5-4a62-b53c-0a1c0053f10a", "symbol": "N1WG34", "name": "NatWest Group plc", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.559, "architecture_energy": 89.858, "architecture_maturity": 15.093, "architecture_confidence": 81.959, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.5, "rotation_up": 81.88, "upward_expansion": 96.03, "deceleration": 42.86, "rotation_down": 10.5, "downward_expansion": 20.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 94.953333, 92.747455, 87.941333, 85.673924 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 98.199997, "trend_reference": 84.388939, "distance_from_trend": 0.16366, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.769117, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.69987, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.756747, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.075868, "excess_performance": 0.132917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.16366, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012866, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.69987, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.223199, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.137567, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.306628, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075868, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.930061, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 870, "relative_activity": 1.672434, "balance": 2.930061, "dry_up": 2.130431, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03666, "annualized_volatility": 0.321805, "from_high_reference": -0.011078, "from_low_reference": 0.398968 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.388939, "fair_value_reference": 57.769117, "structural_low": 72.830002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.042751, "positive_rate": 0.645161, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": 0.02647, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.206551, "worst_return": -0.199757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.06644, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.074638, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.392558, "worst_return": -0.09589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.189265, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.152256, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.583442, "worst_return": -0.175757, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.638541, "energy": 77.391099, "activity_lines": [ 91.572001, 89.14091, 85.184179, 83.949918 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 96.57, "volume": 2055, "typical_volume": 653.4, "trend": 84.079784, "fair_value": 57.302968, "relative_strength": 8.53143, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.571351, "energy": 87.402251, "activity_lines": [ 93.234001, 90.958001, 86.533238, 84.762942 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 98.199997, "volume": 870, "typical_volume": 520.2, "trend": 84.388939, "fair_value": 57.769117, "relative_strength": 13.756747, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.559056, "energy": 89.858239, "activity_lines": [ 94.953333, 92.747455, 87.941333, 85.673924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }