{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e27916b-dda4-434b-9ef1-4d7f80ef8ce2", "symbol": "3008", "name": "Al Kathiri Holding Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.471, "architecture_energy": 86.744, "architecture_maturity": 53.353, "architecture_confidence": 87.628, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.68, "rotation_up": 10.18, "upward_expansion": 21.07, "deceleration": 37.48, "rotation_down": 79.29, "downward_expansion": 96.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.390667, 1.458364, 1.587714, 1.685032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.42, "trend_reference": 1.813333, "distance_from_trend": -0.216912, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.386923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.405092, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.886646, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.32381, "excess_performance": -0.29198, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.216912, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077653, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.405092, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155586, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248866, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17283, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.32381, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.108996, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11956563, "relative_activity": 1.023964, "balance": 0.108996, "dry_up": 1.028383, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055255, "annualized_volatility": 0.216299, "from_high_reference": -0.371681, "from_low_reference": 0.067669 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.813333, "fair_value_reference": 2.386923, "structural_low": 1.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.019785, "positive_rate": 0.361111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.017434, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.205543, "worst_return": -0.172285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.051026, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.063848, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.374332, "worst_return": -0.237113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.100418, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.131071, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.740026, "worst_return": -0.272472, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087786, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055336, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.087866, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": 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-27.375702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.264996, "energy": 96.169614, "activity_lines": [ 1.502667, 1.574182, 1.694714, 1.77557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.38, "volume": 13495901, "typical_volume": 11594659.95, "trend": 1.848, "fair_value": 2.408269, "relative_strength": -27.83764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.756524, "energy": 95.248533, "activity_lines": [ 1.448667, 1.528, 1.656286, 1.744344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.34, "volume": 7569836, "typical_volume": 11330472.6, "trend": 1.831333, "fair_value": 2.397372, "relative_strength": -27.95358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.593105, "energy": 94.871842, "activity_lines": [ 1.397333, 1.482182, 1.616714, 1.71157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.42, "volume": 11956563, "typical_volume": 11676742.1, "trend": 1.813333, "fair_value": 2.386923, "relative_strength": -24.886646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.471009, "energy": 86.743831, "activity_lines": [ 1.390667, 1.458364, 1.587714, 1.685032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }