{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e2f12f6-8c18-4006-9c27-399dd5eafd62", "symbol": "A7RU", "name": "Keppel Infrastructure Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.735, "architecture_energy": 19.689, "architecture_maturity": 23.056, "architecture_confidence": 83.207, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.98, "rotation_up": 22.48, "upward_expansion": 8.4, "deceleration": 48.32, "rotation_down": 40.1, "downward_expansion": 68.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.514989, 0.515564, 0.518969, 0.520436 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.515, "trend_reference": 0.520452, "distance_from_trend": -0.010475, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.427232, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205434, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.245605, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001623, "excess_performance": -0.156458, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010475, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037483, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.205434, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068667, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112456, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180118, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001623, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.792027, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59109500, "relative_activity": 1.419548, "balance": 0.792027, "dry_up": 1.362314, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03685, "annualized_volatility": 0.210519, "from_high_reference": -0.088496, "from_low_reference": 0.271743 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.520452, "fair_value_reference": 0.427232, "structural_low": 0.491378, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.011236, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.013543, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.055046, "worst_return": -0.040406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004227, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.007228, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.061851, "worst_return": -0.093024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013443, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.042758, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.103222, "worst_return": -0.060934, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.510648, "volume": 33935300, "typical_volume": 38451450.0, "trend": 0.517921, "fair_value": 0.425487, "relative_strength": -10.460657, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.795109, "energy": 36.203273, "activity_lines": [ 0.510048, 0.514571, 0.519132, 0.520265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5251, "volume": 90738600, "typical_volume": 40315720.0, "trend": 0.519516, "fair_value": 0.426392, "relative_strength": -8.489072, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.656367, "energy": 26.674303, "activity_lines": [ 0.513538, 0.516078, 0.519556, 0.520728 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.515, "volume": 59109500, "typical_volume": 41639670.0, "trend": 0.520452, "fair_value": 0.427232, "relative_strength": -11.245605, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.735392, "energy": 19.688632, "activity_lines": [ 0.514989, 0.515564, 0.518969, 0.520436 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }