{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e3091cc-c014-46e7-b9c2-2519e60025e9", "symbol": "CPRY", "name": "CALAMOS RUSSELL 2000 STRUCTURED ALT PROTECTION ETF - JANUARY", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.117, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.357, "architecture_energy": 79.359, "architecture_maturity": 18.637, "architecture_confidence": 80.275, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.31, "rotation_up": 69.21, "upward_expansion": 94.24, "deceleration": 44.71, "rotation_down": 24.2, "downward_expansion": 16.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.09456, 28.037855, 27.913023, 27.764463 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 28.1739, "trend_reference": 27.585633, "distance_from_trend": 0.021325, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.188556, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07581, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.116214, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.031444, "excess_performance": -0.094181, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021325, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016595, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07581, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004157, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071162, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008097, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031444, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.180375, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11085, "relative_activity": 0.247371, "balance": 5.180375, "dry_up": 0.593652, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004625, "annualized_volatility": 0.019148, "from_high_reference": -0.003928, "from_low_reference": 0.119789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.585633, "fair_value_reference": 26.188556, "structural_low": 26.99, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.005134, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.019119, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.005134, "worst_return": 0.005134, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"date": "2026-06-05", "close": 27.7576, "volume": 7751, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 27.8699, "volume": 88595, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 27.9129, "volume": 6376, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 27.94, "volume": 374512, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.9749, "volume": 26741, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.03, "volume": 17638, "typical_volume": 47247.15, "trend": 27.44375, "fair_value": 26.093876, "relative_strength": -5.894324, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.158686, "energy": 82.732492, "activity_lines": [ 27.97102, 27.902738, 27.744758, 27.613862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.0354, "volume": 8951, "typical_volume": 45977.0, "trend": 27.481297, "fair_value": 26.117846, "relative_strength": -4.261913, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.66008, "energy": 85.048692, "activity_lines": [ 28.000973, 27.936816, 27.788294, 27.652033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.0291, "volume": 57421, "typical_volume": 46877.25, "trend": 27.516733, "fair_value": 26.141154, "relative_strength": -3.613926, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.436052, "energy": 81.746127, "activity_lines": [ 28.017793, 27.964076, 27.827538, 27.687375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.0902, "volume": 28952, "typical_volume": 46606.35, "trend": 27.552507, "fair_value": 26.164636, "relative_strength": -4.305214, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.274004, "energy": 81.258262, "activity_lines": [ 28.047233, 27.996371, 27.868605, 27.724373 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.1739, "volume": 11085, "typical_volume": 44811.2, "trend": 27.585633, "fair_value": 26.188556, "relative_strength": -7.116214, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.35714, "energy": 79.359159, "activity_lines": [ 28.09456, 28.037855, 27.913023, 27.764463 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }