{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e3868fb-fca3-4288-95d8-d5bb8a54d755", "symbol": "VOOG", "name": "Vanguard S&P 500 Growth Index Fund ETF Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.667, "architecture_energy": 84.483, "architecture_maturity": 93.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.678, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.63, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 37.0, "deceleration": 23.0, "rotation_down": 50.69, "downward_expansion": 75.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 1446.903369, 1438.530089, 1729.063918, 2817.63584 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1505.810059, "trend_reference": 4308.272522, "distance_from_trend": -0.650484, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5923.054267, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.745771, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -75.173714, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.799179, "excess_performance": -0.744512, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.650484, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.339099, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.745771, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021428, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.751737, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073303, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.799179, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.041275, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 502, "relative_activity": 0.740686, "balance": 1.041275, "dry_up": 1.582073, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052728, "annualized_volatility": 2.481189, "from_high_reference": -0.817154, "from_low_reference": 0.144384 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4308.272522, "fair_value_reference": 5923.054267, "structural_low": 1315.825439, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.002949, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.251132, "worst_return": -0.819556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.037529, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.01211, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.251151, "worst_return": -0.805696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.125736, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.101842, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.262052, "worst_return": -0.013623, "sufficient": false }, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.407461, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033188, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093848, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.143542, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", 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1866.73323, 3012.312636 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1505.810059, "volume": 502, "typical_volume": 677.75, "trend": 4308.272522, "fair_value": 5923.054267, "relative_strength": -75.173714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.666593, "energy": 84.483155, "activity_lines": [ 1446.903369, 1438.530089, 1729.063918, 2817.63584 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }