{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e395b34-38cf-402e-b8fc-cf5bb27c409d", "symbol": "300364", "name": "COL Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.034, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.837, "architecture_energy": 23.961, "architecture_maturity": 34.164, "architecture_confidence": 63.946, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.71, "rotation_up": 24.22, "upward_expansion": 11.81, "deceleration": 60.93, "rotation_down": 39.76, "downward_expansion": 68.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.82, 23.510363, 24.581524, 25.627505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.959999, "trend_reference": 27.246, "distance_from_trend": -0.010497, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.219359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113159, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.266224, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.151668, "excess_performance": -0.159068, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010497, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02924, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113159, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201342, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032662, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019689, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.151668, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.884015, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 510247247, "relative_activity": 2.359011, "balance": 0.884015, "dry_up": 1.346587, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123374, "annualized_volatility": 0.767064, "from_high_reference": -0.384475, "from_low_reference": 0.472419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.246, "fair_value_reference": 24.219359, "structural_low": 18.309999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.068966, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.058429, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.287449, "worst_return": -0.197929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.105892, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.103466, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 1.489051, "worst_return": -0.152141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.438824, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.176854, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.549533, "worst_return": -0.088123, "sufficient": true }, 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26.921075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.75, "volume": 226755693, "typical_volume": 215439055.9, "trend": 27.432, "fair_value": 24.075064, "relative_strength": -18.190009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.802912, "energy": 39.064256, "activity_lines": [ 23.962666, 24.328545, 25.740143, 26.747247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.450001, "volume": 199691169, "typical_volume": 206850384.95, "trend": 27.333333, "fair_value": 24.098333, "relative_strength": -21.377283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.071992, "energy": 47.745829, "activity_lines": [ 23.212, 23.627091, 25.243476, 26.361312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.51, "volume": 171988180, "typical_volume": 198942159.15, "trend": 27.156, "fair_value": 24.110962, "relative_strength": -31.747053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.958211, "energy": 69.611918, "activity_lines": [ 21.512667, 22.571636, 24.517333, 25.792064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.83, "volume": 283124908, "typical_volume": 199868099.95, "trend": 27.184667, "fair_value": 24.153462, "relative_strength": -6.618513, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.423141, "energy": 40.729784, "activity_lines": [ 22.356667, 22.836, 24.442905, 25.642 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.959999, "volume": 510247247, "typical_volume": 216297060.95, "trend": 27.246, "fair_value": 24.219359, "relative_strength": -3.266224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.837343, "energy": 23.961341, "activity_lines": [ 23.82, 23.510363, 24.581524, 25.627505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }