{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e3a4ed9-dfeb-4303-b54c-ddb266f466f9", "symbol": "4401", "name": "Toung Loong Textile Mfg.Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.656, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.667, "architecture_energy": 8.986, "architecture_maturity": 16.809, "architecture_confidence": 63.329, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.55, "rotation_up": 29.82, "upward_expansion": 25.31, "deceleration": 28.68, "rotation_down": 28.61, "downward_expansion": 52.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.970284, 13.990445, 13.847801, 13.968419 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.05, "trend_reference": 14.293121, "distance_from_trend": -0.01701, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.301121, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.232287, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.06269, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.096957, "excess_performance": -0.538329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01701, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054967, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.232287, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022395, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.350627, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039013, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096957, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.950305, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150450, "relative_activity": 0.351803, "balance": 0.950305, "dry_up": 0.443987, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056573, "annualized_volatility": 0.232409, "from_high_reference": -0.189257, "from_low_reference": 0.103342 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.293121, "fair_value_reference": 18.301121, "structural_low": 12.734043, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.006169, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.01134, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.153017, "worst_return": -0.090481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.042047, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.057523, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.170259, "worst_return": -0.193594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.131774, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.134078, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.012339, "worst_return": -0.268017, 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047312, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.255334, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014164, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.061675, "energy": 17.037013, "activity_lines": [ 14.198936, 13.92824, 13.8481, 14.072718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.75, "volume": 360550, "typical_volume": 451529.55, "trend": 14.417908, "fair_value": 18.390532, "relative_strength": -34.242673, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.572209, "energy": 12.352715, "activity_lines": [ 14.087588, 13.934526, 13.832472, 14.024091 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.85, "volume": 80100, "typical_volume": 429658.45, "trend": 14.345, "fair_value": 18.343304, "relative_strength": -34.574654, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.432502, "energy": 6.877259, "activity_lines": [ 13.970567, 13.951837, 13.828825, 13.987451 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.05, "volume": 150450, "typical_volume": 427654.45, "trend": 14.293121, "fair_value": 18.301121, "relative_strength": -35.06269, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.666625, "energy": 8.985549, "activity_lines": [ 13.970284, 13.990445, 13.847801, 13.968419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }