{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e3a59ec-fb3a-4143-922b-a9da6d428e49", "symbol": "002355", "name": "Xingmin Intelligent Transportation Systems (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.796, "architecture_energy": 55.663, "architecture_maturity": 80.173, "architecture_confidence": 87.839, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 28.12, "upward_expansion": 14.58, "deceleration": 60.95, "rotation_down": 51.12, "downward_expansion": 78.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.392667, 4.395091, 4.901762, 5.359656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.71, "trend_reference": 5.904667, "distance_from_trend": -0.202326, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.843846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.194024, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.051367, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.209732, "excess_performance": -0.217131, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.202326, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079457, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.194024, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.341803, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240514, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060536, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.209732, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.394387, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 230802164, "relative_activity": 2.409297, "balance": 0.394387, "dry_up": 1.211811, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111057, "annualized_volatility": 0.486835, "from_high_reference": -0.410513, "from_low_reference": 0.201531 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.904667, "fair_value_reference": 5.843846, "structural_low": 3.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.030635, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.027288, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.212871, "worst_return": -0.18254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.032186, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.042078, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.273543, "worst_return": -0.142582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.086957, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.017572, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.406404, "worst_return": -0.27529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.15, "volume": 97868599, "typical_volume": 114368708.0, "trend": 6.089, "fair_value": 5.868782, "relative_strength": -32.514933, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.660885, "energy": 88.66201, "activity_lines": [ 4.279333, 4.604909, 5.253524, 5.673828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.09, "volume": 76504945, "typical_volume": 106575868.45, "trend": 6.011, "fair_value": 5.861282, "relative_strength": -32.986429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.871341, "energy": 73.703923, "activity_lines": [ 4.191333, 4.438182, 5.092333, 5.54486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.38, "volume": 59173157, "typical_volume": 95847830.35, "trend": 5.949667, "fair_value": 5.851474, "relative_strength": -26.365384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.766829, "energy": 64.868086, "activity_lines": [ 4.24, 4.37, 4.974143, 5.439634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.71, "volume": 230802164, "typical_volume": 95796472.1, "trend": 5.904667, "fair_value": 5.843846, "relative_strength": -24.051367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.795647, "energy": 55.662931, "activity_lines": [ 4.392667, 4.395091, 4.901762, 5.359656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }