{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e426813-93ec-4edf-b02e-7a67ccee3c16", "symbol": "VTY", "name": "Vistry Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.023, "architecture_energy": 26.087, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.314, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.55, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 22.47, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 24.1, "downward_expansion": 58.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 282.92, 272.978182, 278.941905, 317.146882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 283.6, "trend_reference": 394.950001, "distance_from_trend": -0.281934, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 759.994231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.626839, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.975812, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.574557, "excess_performance": -0.625793, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.281934, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237955, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.626839, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062958, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.479758, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037965, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.574557, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.542286, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21173092, "relative_activity": 2.259517, "balance": 0.542286, "dry_up": 1.310351, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11372, "annualized_volatility": 0.819938, "from_high_reference": -0.620043, "from_low_reference": 0.280939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 394.950001, "fair_value_reference": 759.994231, "structural_low": 221.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.008871, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.011582, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.228617, "worst_return": -0.297232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.175887, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.145521, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.27459, "worst_return": -0.330911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.199579, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.257243, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.236764, "worst_return": -0.312757, "sufficient": true 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"typical_volume": 9490245.95, "trend": 408.390001, "fair_value": 763.201923, "relative_strength": -47.176857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.916152, "energy": 39.754099, "activity_lines": [ 279.253333, 269.647273, 280.186667, 325.19785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 283.6, "volume": 21173092, "typical_volume": 9370628.75, "trend": 394.950001, "fair_value": 759.994231, "relative_strength": -47.975812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.023466, "energy": 26.086711, "activity_lines": [ 282.92, 272.978182, 278.941905, 317.146882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }