{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e47c7de-6698-42d8-9745-7f885bf5a9ef", "symbol": "THOMASCOOK", "name": "Thomas Cook (India) Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.342, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.433, "architecture_energy": 11.539, "architecture_maturity": 23.166, "architecture_confidence": 44.094, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.12, "rotation_up": 15.76, "upward_expansion": 27.2, "deceleration": 64.78, "rotation_down": 38.84, "downward_expansion": 46.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 102.641331, 103.895271, 101.947095, 101.660257 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 104.129997, "trend_reference": 103.971666, "distance_from_trend": 0.001523, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 156.094899, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.332906, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.747358, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.056708, "excess_performance": -0.012999, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001523, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119809, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.332906, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03912, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167474, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125782, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056708, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.34923, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9200921, "relative_activity": 1.768666, "balance": 0.34923, "dry_up": 1.203208, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07617, "annualized_volatility": 0.500402, "from_high_reference": -0.426439, "from_low_reference": 0.205906 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 103.971666, "fair_value_reference": 156.094899, "structural_low": 86.349998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.025284, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.005337, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.228335, "worst_return": -0.185003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.032321, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.004345, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.729681, "worst_return": -0.397808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02391, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.050152, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.392651, "worst_return": -0.300288, 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"direction": -6.096041, "energy": 11.551826, "activity_lines": [ 104.828667, 103.861273, 101.379381, 102.518581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 97.849998, "volume": 3305479, "typical_volume": 5267837.85, "trend": 106.470333, "fair_value": 156.047517, "relative_strength": -20.413013, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.481985, "energy": 20.899465, "activity_lines": [ 101.916666, 103.216545, 101.20819, 101.865656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 104.269997, "volume": 8668968, "typical_volume": 5382131.15, "trend": 105.113333, "fair_value": 156.102348, "relative_strength": -16.640969, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.727713, "energy": 16.236689, "activity_lines": [ 102.061332, 103.682545, 101.621428, 101.723699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 104.129997, "volume": 9200921, "typical_volume": 5202179.95, "trend": 103.971666, "fair_value": 156.094899, "relative_strength": -16.747358, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.432556, "energy": 11.539236, "activity_lines": [ 102.641331, 103.895271, 101.947095, 101.660257 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }