{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e4cf916-b1b7-4315-9f55-6b8ea818e606", "symbol": "TOTS3", "name": "TOTVS S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.418, "architecture_energy": 21.215, "architecture_maturity": 91.877, "architecture_confidence": 81.713, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.1, "rotation_up": 29.06, "upward_expansion": 16.73, "deceleration": 43.35, "rotation_down": 29.42, "downward_expansion": 62.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.399333, 29.879695, 30.589317, 31.757912 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.209999, "trend_reference": 34.010705, "distance_from_trend": -0.052945, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.258714, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.031532, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.416697, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.145086, "excess_performance": -0.088037, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052945, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121412, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.031532, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089731, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194167, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086251, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145086, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.251593, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25393900, "relative_activity": 1.04761, "balance": 2.251593, "dry_up": 0.92191, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081586, "annualized_volatility": 0.430367, "from_high_reference": -0.328638, "from_low_reference": 0.203662 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.010705, "fair_value_reference": 33.258714, "structural_low": 26.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.03881, "positive_rate": 0.722222, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": 0.047198, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.302984, "worst_return": -0.220051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.147379, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.043233, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.311896, "worst_return": -0.203585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.108456, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.031726, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.662076, "worst_return": -0.184938, 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"relative_strength": -30.021502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.170663, "energy": 44.963382, "activity_lines": [ 29.338, 29.751772, 31.043331, 32.634668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.469999, "volume": 22411500, "typical_volume": 24137650.0, "trend": 34.721209, "fair_value": 33.201035, "relative_strength": -33.414055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.0861, "energy": 48.971589, "activity_lines": [ 28.835333, 29.245948, 30.59551, 32.13525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.06, "volume": 23295600, "typical_volume": 24106340.0, "trend": 34.39753, "fair_value": 33.220108, "relative_strength": -25.4651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.419514, "energy": 31.753343, "activity_lines": [ 29.504667, 29.456117, 30.529668, 31.899043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.209999, "volume": 25393900, "typical_volume": 24239830.0, "trend": 34.010705, "fair_value": 33.258714, "relative_strength": -19.416697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.418135, "energy": 21.215061, "activity_lines": [ 30.399333, 29.879695, 30.589317, 31.757912 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }