{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e5e9427-31d9-4057-9586-c404a852b49d", "symbol": "CAF", "name": "Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.951, "architecture_energy": 64.148, "architecture_maturity": 40.802, "architecture_confidence": 73.761, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.06, "rotation_up": 65.85, "upward_expansion": 83.89, "deceleration": 49.94, "rotation_down": 11.69, "downward_expansion": 12.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.373334, 63.997073, 62.600481, 61.542084 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 66.900002, "trend_reference": 60.269227, "distance_from_trend": 0.110019, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.317303, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.580914, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.459925, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.161458, "excess_performance": 0.037028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110019, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042654, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.580914, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041212, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.004599, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01346, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.161458, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.964197, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 151910, "relative_activity": 1.400784, "balance": 0.964197, "dry_up": 1.331337, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05207, "annualized_volatility": 0.234375, "from_high_reference": -0.068245, "from_low_reference": 0.352882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.269227, "fair_value_reference": 42.317303, "structural_low": 51.400002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.011449, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.008304, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.136201, "worst_return": -0.116536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.043695, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.007163, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.277851, "worst_return": -0.048077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.09707, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.009589, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.394819, "worst_return": 0.047695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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59.619227, "fair_value": 41.626424, "relative_strength": -3.63596, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.262798, "energy": 49.693616, "activity_lines": [ 62.358112, 61.701145, 61.077293, 60.379354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.900002, "volume": 90596, "typical_volume": 107286.65, "trend": 59.719227, "fair_value": 41.828599, "relative_strength": -5.391436, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.165235, "energy": 42.89755, "activity_lines": [ 62.254562, 61.835006, 61.247403, 60.526501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.599998, "volume": 189229, "typical_volume": 108902.25, "trend": 60.039227, "fair_value": 42.078249, "relative_strength": 3.934032, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.444042, "energy": 58.170236, "activity_lines": [ 64.326666, 63.155339, 62.037513, 61.099454 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.900002, "volume": 151910, "typical_volume": 108446.4, "trend": 60.269227, "fair_value": 42.317303, "relative_strength": -0.459925, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.950616, "energy": 64.148299, "activity_lines": [ 65.373334, 63.997073, 62.600481, 61.542084 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }