{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e5edf18-d7ec-428e-9451-7e032d6866ac", "symbol": "AUCT", "name": "Union Auction Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.753, "architecture_energy": 19.146, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 52.175, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.8, "rotation_up": 36.1, "upward_expansion": 26.43, "deceleration": 50.13, "rotation_down": 17.25, "downward_expansion": 46.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.425333, 4.350182, 4.334336, 4.456428 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.42, "trend_reference": 4.625114, "distance_from_trend": -0.044348, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.921867, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.361444, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.675174, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.114402, "excess_performance": -0.306727, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044348, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080289, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.361444, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018295, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.256752, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035292, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.114402, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.514608, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1620400, "relative_activity": 0.588599, "balance": 0.514608, "dry_up": 0.719384, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04873, "annualized_volatility": 0.257669, "from_high_reference": -0.413362, "from_low_reference": 0.175532 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.625114, "fair_value_reference": 6.921867, "structural_low": 3.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.00641, "positive_rate": 0.516129, "directional_follow_through": 0.387097, "median_excess_return": 0.003378, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.162162, "worst_return": -0.219858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.014222, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.01416, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.127119, "worst_return": -0.238364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.036246, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060221, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.135636, "worst_return": -0.335219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.303266, "energy": 27.263639, "activity_lines": [ 4.366667, 4.226182, 4.357293, 4.510169 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.42, "volume": 2273800, "typical_volume": 2846785.0, "trend": 4.685308, "fair_value": 6.976571, "relative_strength": -28.679263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.533411, "energy": 28.907718, "activity_lines": [ 4.405333, 4.272364, 4.348433, 4.490689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.38, "volume": 1003600, "typical_volume": 2822555.0, "trend": 4.645746, "fair_value": 6.949352, "relative_strength": -27.677357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.445916, "energy": 25.49481, "activity_lines": [ 4.418667, 4.309455, 4.338254, 4.470992 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.42, "volume": 1620400, "typical_volume": 2752980.0, "trend": 4.625114, "fair_value": 6.921867, "relative_strength": -25.675174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.752701, "energy": 19.146369, "activity_lines": [ 4.425333, 4.350182, 4.334336, 4.456428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }