{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e6048d9-a017-4eb8-9d9c-97fc7ce2b5bf", "symbol": "OMXS", "name": "iShares OMX Stockholm Capped UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.284, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.544, "architecture_energy": 52.423, "architecture_maturity": 33.89, "architecture_confidence": 83.646, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.04, "rotation_up": 55.96, "upward_expansion": 80.93, "deceleration": 50.37, "rotation_down": 21.55, "downward_expansion": 14.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.423, 8.366636, 8.331506, 8.284059 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.6525, "trend_reference": 8.25125, "distance_from_trend": 0.048629, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.785467, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275152, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.027499, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030366, "excess_performance": -0.020869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048629, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031036, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275152, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019415, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010275, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023114, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030366, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.885049, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38418, "relative_activity": 0.495479, "balance": 0.885049, "dry_up": 0.247356, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025533, "annualized_volatility": 0.201856, "from_high_reference": -0.085463, "from_low_reference": 0.270263 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.25125, "fair_value_reference": 6.785467, "structural_low": 7.2775, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.002429, "positive_rate": 0.516129, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.002741, "regime_survival": 0.677419, "best_return": 0.341045, "worst_return": -0.234891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.015125, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.003803, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.1127, "worst_return": -0.108438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.024451, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.026574, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.199367, "worst_return": -0.232099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 8.225, "volume": 44312, "typical_volume": 96403.65, "trend": 8.17375, "fair_value": 6.708399, "relative_strength": -0.036192, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.341264, "energy": 16.241166, "activity_lines": [ 8.31125, 8.313659, 8.263435, 8.238747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.15, "volume": 23424, "typical_volume": 94049.3, "trend": 8.19, "fair_value": 6.725795, "relative_strength": -1.95952, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.224448, "energy": 10.308328, "activity_lines": [ 8.256333, 8.286159, 8.257702, 8.237215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.2525, "volume": 10161, "typical_volume": 88850.95, "trend": 8.208292, "fair_value": 6.743776, "relative_strength": -1.992177, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.532694, "energy": 11.657011, "activity_lines": [ 8.246333, 8.278545, 8.264399, 8.241247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.45, "volume": 4714, "typical_volume": 84912.6, "trend": 8.230625, "fair_value": 6.763544, "relative_strength": -0.949834, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.947093, "energy": 20.973295, "activity_lines": [ 8.308167, 8.305023, 8.28956, 8.256841 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.6525, "volume": 38418, "typical_volume": 77537.15, "trend": 8.25125, "fair_value": 6.785467, "relative_strength": 1.027499, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.544337, "energy": 52.423324, "activity_lines": [ 8.423, 8.366636, 8.331506, 8.284059 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }