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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.862, "architecture_energy": 49.368, "architecture_maturity": 18.641, "architecture_confidence": 67.365, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.62, "rotation_up": 60.75, "upward_expansion": 77.67, "deceleration": 55.82, "rotation_down": 14.41, "downward_expansion": 6.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 88.973334, 86.634374, 84.832918, 82.353505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 94.800003, "trend_reference": 78.475696, "distance_from_trend": 0.208017, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 78.833813, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.20253, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.649614, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.409195, "excess_performance": -0.032177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.208017, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082844, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.20253, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.252127, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076496, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.241548, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.409195, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.356608, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121140144, "relative_activity": 1.465611, "balance": 1.356608, "dry_up": 0.961937, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089489, "annualized_volatility": 0.356213, "from_high_reference": -0.056716, "from_low_reference": 0.46765 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.475696, "fair_value_reference": 78.833813, "structural_low": 64.975827, 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94.800003, "volume": 121140144, "typical_volume": 82655064.95, "trend": 78.475696, "fair_value": 78.833813, "relative_strength": -7.649614, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.862255, "energy": 49.368356, "activity_lines": [ 88.973334, 86.634374, 84.832918, 82.353505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }