{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e701d11-9754-4a8b-b92f-542f25bccfd9", "symbol": "COLB", "name": "Columbia Banking System Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.373, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.441, "architecture_energy": 33.41, "architecture_maturity": 55.25, "architecture_confidence": 48.994, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.17, "rotation_up": 42.05, "upward_expansion": 65.51, "deceleration": 64.63, "rotation_down": 24.19, "downward_expansion": 15.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.550667, 31.620727, 30.865273, 30.175355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 31.24, "trend_reference": 29.529391, "distance_from_trend": 0.057929, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.385475, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.335872, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.36766, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.000894, "excess_performance": -0.188348, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057929, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049216, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.335872, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005582, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023677, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02512, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000894, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.431927, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11591093, "relative_activity": 0.84703, "balance": 1.431927, "dry_up": 1.098999, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050394, "annualized_volatility": 0.257113, "from_high_reference": -0.072309, "from_low_reference": 0.373931 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.529391, "fair_value_reference": 23.385475, "structural_low": 25.358447, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.022872, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.008152, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.13405, "worst_return": -0.235007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.00515, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.07575, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.205656, "worst_return": -0.237111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.059703, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.161666, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.199447, "worst_return": -0.406439, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3.26288, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.674164, "energy": 53.364997, "activity_lines": [ 32.03, 31.592972, 30.559618, 29.932012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.27, "volume": 15632183, "typical_volume": 14072496.1, "trend": 29.432174, "fair_value": 23.300237, "relative_strength": 2.850308, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.027289, "energy": 43.995939, "activity_lines": [ 31.766, 31.626909, 30.726644, 30.058721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.24, "volume": 11591093, "typical_volume": 13684393.55, "trend": 29.529391, "fair_value": 23.385475, "relative_strength": -2.36766, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.440564, "energy": 33.410364, "activity_lines": [ 31.550667, 31.620727, 30.865273, 30.175355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }