{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e724112-4d73-421b-ad53-9ba34cf08164", "symbol": "SPH", "name": "Suburban Propane Partners LP", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.924, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.343, "architecture_energy": 22.027, "architecture_maturity": 52.616, "architecture_confidence": 83.326, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.47, "rotation_up": 26.21, "upward_expansion": 14.99, "deceleration": 46.24, "rotation_down": 29.14, "downward_expansion": 62.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.980688, 17.779978, 18.257136, 18.609709 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.71, "trend_reference": 18.965234, "distance_from_trend": -0.066186, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.154874, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03236, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.871759, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.088269, "excess_performance": -0.213894, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066186, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008529, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03236, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103126, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088269, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.727004, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 976651, "relative_activity": 1.159464, "balance": 0.727004, "dry_up": 0.952747, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056876, "annualized_volatility": 0.222329, "from_high_reference": -0.13736, "from_low_reference": 0.071385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.965234, "fair_value_reference": 17.154874, "structural_low": 16.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.018286, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.005862, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.040431, "worst_return": -0.013532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047589, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.02063, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.120139, "worst_return": 0.019824, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.080622, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.027762, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.212106, "worst_return": 0.032403, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 661541, "typical_volume": 804719.4, "trend": 18.964713, "fair_value": 17.042216, "relative_strength": -11.671857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.289092, "energy": 61.294043, "activity_lines": [ 17.468254, 17.807671, 18.470949, 18.779129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.234912, "volume": 726156, "typical_volume": 809620.85, "trend": 18.965648, "fair_value": 17.080975, "relative_strength": -8.807746, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.797418, "energy": 38.3769, "activity_lines": [ 17.782316, 17.791044, 18.405122, 18.732045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.333161, "volume": 845760, "typical_volume": 824331.2, "trend": 18.97373, "fair_value": 17.120294, "relative_strength": -9.044849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.181185, "energy": 24.380811, "activity_lines": [ 18.016801, 17.824372, 18.356659, 18.69124 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.71, "volume": 976651, "typical_volume": 842329.65, "trend": 18.965234, "fair_value": 17.154874, "relative_strength": -14.871759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.34346, "energy": 22.02703, "activity_lines": [ 17.980688, 17.779978, 18.257136, 18.609709 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }