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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.957, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.729, "architecture_energy": 28.816, "architecture_maturity": 53.682, "architecture_confidence": 44.216, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.1, "rotation_up": 40.1, "upward_expansion": 67.94, "deceleration": 62.01, "rotation_down": 30.75, "downward_expansion": 20.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 94.726666, 95.565454, 93.275826, 91.729478 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 90.279999, "trend_reference": 90.553664, "distance_from_trend": -0.003022, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 99.179752, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.089734, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.843989, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.051795, "excess_performance": -0.226041, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003022, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054221, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.089734, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096702, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11844, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000153, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051795, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.242424, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.038722, "balance": 0.242424, "dry_up": 1.96031, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045369, "annualized_volatility": 0.31294, "from_high_reference": -0.126463, "from_low_reference": 0.359381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.553664, "fair_value_reference": 99.179752, 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79.630338, "energy": 80.089019, "activity_lines": [ 96.029333, 93.904322, 90.820927, 90.109822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 102.5, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 43.95, "trend": 89.633494, "fair_value": 100.032487, "relative_strength": 4.042428, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.162637, "energy": 90.87352, "activity_lines": [ 98.496, 95.916727, 92.107553, 90.981196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 100.900002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 41.1, "trend": 90.26304, "fair_value": 99.765741, "relative_strength": 1.236069, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.859804, "energy": 86.603367, "activity_lines": [ 99.826667, 97.293091, 93.21534, 91.708068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 90.839996, "volume": 343, "typical_volume": 52.1, "trend": 90.525094, "fair_value": 99.470439, "relative_strength": -8.728963, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.763541, "energy": 48.632663, "activity_lines": [ 97.213333, 96.522181, 93.289637, 91.745291 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 90.279999, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 51.65, "trend": 90.553664, "fair_value": 99.179752, "relative_strength": -11.843989, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.729281, "energy": 28.81631, "activity_lines": [ 94.726666, 95.565454, 93.275826, 91.729478 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }