{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e7f3d00-4b02-4a23-ba91-5dce56913ede", "symbol": "EVO", "name": "Embark Early Education Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.353, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.548, "architecture_energy": 8.661, "architecture_maturity": 24.072, "architecture_confidence": 58.952, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.64, "rotation_up": 25.82, "upward_expansion": 29.59, "deceleration": 47.72, "rotation_down": 20.85, "downward_expansion": 40.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.418, 0.415182, 0.410835, 0.419257 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.42, "trend_reference": 0.446471, "distance_from_trend": -0.059289, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.5648, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.256374, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.545829, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.254685, "excess_performance": -0.31839, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059289, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122966, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.256374, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065219, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225458, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096091, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.254685, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.764326, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1459456, "relative_activity": 1.422597, "balance": 1.764326, "dry_up": 1.127767, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062297, "annualized_volatility": 0.326566, "from_high_reference": -0.384833, "from_low_reference": 0.100384 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.446471, "fair_value_reference": 0.5648, "structural_low": 0.381685, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.021199, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.015066, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.099097, "worst_return": -0.134616, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.056254, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.047048, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.112151, "worst_return": -0.171974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.106986, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.136172, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072072, "worst_return": -0.235294, 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"Developing", "return": 0.182454, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.168511, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.021385, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021126, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062499, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", 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"relative_strength": -19.52577, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.495184, "energy": 15.774184, "activity_lines": [ 0.418667, 0.412909, 0.408946, 0.424275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.415, "volume": 564502, "typical_volume": 1041342.2, "trend": 0.453133, "fair_value": 0.565435, "relative_strength": -21.680257, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.12226, "energy": 11.469653, "activity_lines": [ 0.418, 0.413455, 0.409571, 0.421395 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.42, "volume": 1459456, "typical_volume": 1025909.85, "trend": 0.446471, "fair_value": 0.5648, "relative_strength": -22.545829, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.548087, "energy": 8.661445, "activity_lines": [ 0.418, 0.415182, 0.410835, 0.419257 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }