{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1e7ffc70-f20a-4eb5-81f8-3a78f2977df8", "symbol": "UC93", "name": "UBS MSCI Switzerland 20/35 UCITS ETF hGBP acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.834, "architecture_energy": 73.214, "architecture_maturity": 42.767, "architecture_confidence": 82.908, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.38, "rotation_up": 73.2, "upward_expansion": 90.0, "deceleration": 52.34, "rotation_down": 21.94, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 3464.2, 3433.872727, 3343.790476, 3276.175806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 3512.0, "trend_reference": 3203.916667, "distance_from_trend": 0.096158, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2696.345065, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.302504, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.693091, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.12366, "excess_performance": 0.072425, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096158, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045324, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.302504, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10211, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.056931, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043642, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12366, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.448354, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5638, "relative_activity": 0.836436, "balance": 6.448354, "dry_up": 0.411357, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017938, "annualized_volatility": 0.148547, "from_high_reference": -0.003547, "from_low_reference": 0.298576 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3203.916667, "fair_value_reference": 2696.345065, "structural_low": 2842.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.006672, "positive_rate": 0.617647, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.00027, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.048677, "worst_return": -0.125966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008407, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.009474, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.100311, "worst_return": -0.0526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.046119, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.01275, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.086966, "worst_return": -0.1254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": 7.568134, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.762122, "energy": 90.520613, "activity_lines": [ 3403.666667, 3337.286364, 3245.657143, 3201.66129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3440.25, "volume": 605, "typical_volume": 7096.45, "trend": 3164.258333, "fair_value": 2673.788975, "relative_strength": 6.972636, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.337406, "energy": 90.841396, "activity_lines": [ 3425.433333, 3365.740909, 3270.54881, 3220.348925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3437.75, "volume": 1795, "typical_volume": 7020.95, "trend": 3177.083333, "fair_value": 2680.934808, "relative_strength": 5.402279, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.254135, "energy": 88.587242, "activity_lines": [ 3436.133333, 3388.131818, 3294.270238, 3237.993548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3447.0, "volume": 3053, "typical_volume": 7051.8, "trend": 3190.091667, "fair_value": 2688.42359, "relative_strength": 4.212099, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.443184, "energy": 77.926734, "activity_lines": [ 3440.95, 3407.090909, 3316.986905, 3255.407527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3512.0, "volume": 5638, "typical_volume": 6740.5, "trend": 3203.916667, "fair_value": 2696.345065, "relative_strength": 5.693091, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.833813, "energy": 73.213875, "activity_lines": [ 3464.2, 3433.872727, 3343.790476, 3276.175806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }